According to Newzoo’s latest market analysis, the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during the Gamescom 2026 conference that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most significant catalyst keeping the console market from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline.
Rosier also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor to the modest uplift currently projected for console revenues. "Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier said. "If GTA VI were not on the schedule for 2026, we would be looking at a negative growth trajectory for the platform overall. The game is effectively pulling the entire console ecosystem upward." Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report, released alongside the interview, forecasts that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector. This surge is not merely a short‑term spike; Rosier believes the title’s influence will linger beyond its launch window. He noted that the arrival of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other releases, prompting many developers to shift their launch dates to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. When asked whether the market would experience a pronounced "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring power of the franchise.
"Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a massive, loyal fan base. The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue through its online component and subsequent updates," he explained.
Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the future roadmap. "We anticipate a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not disclosed specifics, so we can only infer based on past patterns," he said. He added that the 2027 forecast already assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will act as another major revenue driver, though the exact timing and scale remain uncertain. Pricing dynamics also came under discussion.
Rosier observed that when a flagship title like GTA VI commands a premium price, it can raise the overall price elasticity across the market. "The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he noted, meaning consumers are willing to pay a higher price without a significant drop in sales. He suggested that this trend could lift indie game prices as well, with many smaller titles moving from $20 to around $30, subtly nudging the average spend per player upward.
While consoles receive a boost from GTA VI and the Switch 2, mobile gaming continues to dominate the global revenue landscape. Newzoo’s report shows mobile platforms accounting for 57% of worldwide game revenue in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion—representing a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher average spend per player and the expanding reach of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, which allow developers to capture a larger share of the transaction value.
The report also referenced the remarkable pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the intense anticipation and willingness of the gaming community to invest early in high‑profile releases. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be flat or even contracting without the dual impact of the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI. GTA VI’s anticipated 17.5% boost to full‑game spend, combined with its potential to drive ancillary revenue through online services and future platform releases, positions it as the cornerstone of console growth for 2026.
At the same time, mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue engine, continuing to expand its share of the global market and setting the broader context in which console and PC segments operate.