In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially plateau in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not launch Grand Theft Auto VI this year. According to Rosier, the much‑anticipated crime‑action title is the sole catalyst that will keep console revenues from slipping below the levels recorded in 2025. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, though secondary, driver of modest growth. "There are two forces shaping the current and near‑future health of the console ecosystem: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is poised to lift the market," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz.
"If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would likely see the platform contract on a year‑over‑year basis. The game is effectively acting as a growth engine for consoles in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments, projecting a 5.1% increase in console‑related revenue for 2026, bringing the total to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to contribute a 17.5% surge in full‑game spend, which Newzoo identifies as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the sector. The analyst also cautioned that GTA VI’s launch could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted several developers to shift their release windows in order to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship.
When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off bump that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring power of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The strength of GTA as a catalogue title is massive; the story doesn’t simply end in 2026," he explained. Rosier admitted that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said.
"We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we can’t pinpoint when the old and new services will converge. Still, the franchise continues to generate substantial revenue.
Our 2027 outlook already assumes a PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." Regarding pricing, Rosier noted that the market’s price elasticity for blockbuster titles like GTA VI is very low because there is essentially only one version of the game. "When a top‑tier title raises its price, it often lifts the entire market," he said, adding that indie games have already seen price hikes from $20 to $30, reflecting a broader upward trend in game pricing. While consoles are set to experience modest growth, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide.
Mobile is forecast to account for 57% of total global game revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the franchise’s strong market pull and the anticipation built over several years of delay. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI.
The game’s release not only promises a sizable uplift in full‑game spend but also influences pricing dynamics across the industry and forces other publishers to strategically adjust their launch calendars. Coupled with the anticipated impact of the Nintendo Switch 2, these factors together are expected to deliver a modest yet positive growth trajectory for consoles in 2026, while mobile continues its reign as the primary revenue engine in the global games ecosystem.