Shams Jorjani, chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the team behind Helldivers 2 – told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is currently undergoing a profound transition. He explained that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their effectiveness, and that the industry now operates on a very different set of premises. "Sometimes you hear doom‑and‑gloom narratives, but overall the market is healthy," Jorjani said.
"What has changed is that the assumptions we built our business cases on have been upended. The playbooks that served us from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t work any longer. The bottom line has vanished from every forecast.
No one could guarantee a title would sell a certain number of copies, and now that expected figure has to be reduced to zero. That is the reality we face." Several forces are driving this shift. One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region.
This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring how Asian creators are increasingly shaping the global market. "There has always been a gradual influx of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani noted.
"For the past decade that trend has been steady, but now we’re seeing a steady stream of titles that are truly competitive on a worldwide stage." China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of production quality. Jorjani observed that while the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that influences design sensibilities – the overall pace of development is accelerating, a trend he attributes in part to artificial intelligence. "The quality is definitely climbing," he said. "There’s still a journey ahead, but the sensibilities are evolving.
Mobile dominance colours the way games are built, yet AI is speeding everything up, allowing more titles to emerge at a faster cadence across the globe." AI, according to Jorjani, is perhaps the most disruptive technology the industry has seen in recent memory. Its impact is twofold: it injects a high degree of uncertainty into market forecasts, and it is being embraced at very different speeds in the East and West. While past hype cycles – such as virtual reality – eventually settled into niche roles, AI is reshaping core workflows. "In the West we’re wrestling with ethical questions, data‑training permissions, and artistic integrity," he explained.
"In the East, the conversation is largely absent – developers simply adopt AI because it works. It mirrors what we see in the broader tech sector: teams switch to AI‑driven pipelines without moral hesitation because the output is functional code, not a piece of art meant to connect emotionally with people." He added that this divergence creates an existential dilemma for Western studios.
"When you turn a creative endeavor into a software problem, the focus shifts to efficiency. The West will adopt AI more slowly, but the shift is inevitable," Jorjani said. Beyond technology, the sheer length of AAA development cycles remains a major obstacle to forecasting. Large‑scale projects can span five to six years, involve multiple studios across time zones, and require massive financial commitments.
This reality has nudged many Western publishers toward leveraging established franchises rather than investing in new intellectual property. "Long cycles mean you need a very solid bet," Jorjani asserted.
"Brand recognition is the primary risk mitigant. If players already know a name, they’re more likely to purchase, even if the game isn’t groundbreaking. That’s why you see titles like Worms or Helldivers getting green‑lights – the audience already trusts the brand." He cited Steam data showing that roughly half of the games played on the platform are over eighteen months old, indicating that gamers often gravitate toward familiar experiences rather than fresh IPs. "People shout for new games, but they end up buying remakes or sequels," he said.
Jorjani pointed to companies such as Riot Games and Supercell, which maintain a portfolio of multiple projects in various stages of development. Typically, one title becomes a hit while the others fade into obscurity.
This dynamic, he argued, creates a strategic opening for indie developers. "The secret sauce for any successful game is early validation," he emphasized. "The faster you can show something to a real player and receive positive feedback, the quicker you can iterate and improve.
Indie studios excel at this because their development cycles are short and they share progress openly – a GIF here, a demo there. If the community reacts positively, you know you’re on the right track." Arrowhead is applying this philosophy to its upcoming project. The studio plans to borrow a tactic long used by mobile developers: exposing concepts to consumers through short‑form ads or prototypes and measuring which resonate most.
"We’ll get the game into the hands of a hundred Helldivers fans as early as possible," Jorjani explained. "Then we’ll ask them about their favourite IPs, genres, and themes. If they love aliens and enjoy Helldivers, we’ll know that a sci‑fi‑heavy direction is likely to score high with that cohort. This early, targeted testing replaces the old model of keeping the product hidden for years before a massive launch." He concluded by urging the industry to abandon the antiquated playbook of secrecy and delayed gratification.
"If you keep your cards close to your chest for years and then try to dazzle the market with a big reveal, you risk being lost in the noise. Early, transparent validation is the way forward, especially for indie teams that can move quickly and adapt on the fly." In summary, Jorjani believes the gaming landscape is being reshaped by longer development timelines, the ascendancy of Asian studios, and the disruptive influence of AI. While these forces introduce uncertainty, they also open doors for smaller, agile developers who can test ideas early, iterate rapidly, and connect directly with niche audiences. Arrowhead’s own strategy reflects this new reality, blending brand strength with a willingness to experiment and listen to players from day one.