China's Gaming Market to Experience First Decline in 20 Years, According to Niko Partners

In a historic shift, China's gaming market is poised to contract for the first time in two decades, driven by decreased mobile game expenditure, stringent regulations, and other factors. Research firm Niko Partners has revised its forecast, now anticipating a 2.5% year-over-year decline to $45.44 billion. This downturn is primarily attributed to a 5.1% drop in mobile game revenues, which will still account for 66% of the market at $30 billion. Conversely, the PC sector is expected to grow 2.1% to $13.6 billion, marking its first year of growth since 2017. Console revenues are forecast to reach $1.8 billion, representing a 14.7% increase. The decline is also influenced by factors such as reduced new game releases, underperforming titles, and government restrictions, including limits on youth gaming. Niko Partners' research indicates that 39 million young gamers have stopped playing altogether, contributing to the market's decline. Despite this, the company forecasts a recovery with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% from 2021 to 2026, driven by anticipated new game releases and adjustments to regulations.