If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the single most significant catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, albeit secondary, driver of the platform’s performance.
"Two factors are shaping the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier explained. "If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline in console revenue. The game is effectively the engine that is keeping the console sector in positive territory for the year." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report quantifies this impact. The firm forecasts that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching approximately $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI alone is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models tracked in the report. Rosier also warned that the massive pull of GTA VI could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that is already prompting many developers to shift their release windows in order to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
When asked whether the market would experience a sharp "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s longevity makes such a simple spike‑and‑drop scenario unlikely. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is enormous; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said.
He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will look like in the coming months and years," Rosier admitted. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the timeline, so we can’t pinpoint when the current online component will give way to the new ecosystem. What we do know is that it continues to generate substantial revenue.
Our 2027 outlook already includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns of previous GTA releases." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is very low because there is essentially only one version of the game. "When a flagship title raises its price, it often lifts the entire market. Indie games that used to sell for $20 are now $30, and overall price points are creeping upward," he said.
This trend reflects a broader willingness among consumers to spend more for premium experiences, especially when anticipation has been building for years. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games industry. Mobile platforms are expected to capture 57% of total game‑related income in 2026, translating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also highlighted early sales data for GTA VI. Pre‑order figures alone generated roughly $260 million in the first week after the pre‑order window opened, underscoring the franchise’s massive commercial pull even before the full product hits shelves.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would be flat or possibly contracting without the infusion of revenue from GTA VI. The game’s release not only promises a direct uplift in full‑game spending but also exerts indirect pressure on pricing across the ecosystem and influences release strategies for competing developers.
While the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 will provide a modest boost, it is Rockstar’s flagship title that stands as the primary engine of growth for consoles in 2026. The broader industry landscape, however, continues to be dominated by mobile, which maintains its lead as the biggest source of gaming revenue worldwide.