In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console segment would essentially break even with 2025 if it were not for the imminent launch of Rockstar Games’ next‑generation title, Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that GTA VI is the single most important catalyst for any positive growth in the console market this year, and that the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 also plays a supportive role, but cannot offset the absence of the blockbuster on its own. "There are two main drivers shaping the current and future health of consoles: the new Switch 2 hardware and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will lift the entire market," Rosier explained.
"If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline in console revenue. The title is essentially pulling the sector up and keeping it from slipping backward." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report reinforces this narrative, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to generate a 17.5% surge in full‑game spending on consoles, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the industry. Rosier also cautioned that the launch of GTA VI is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles. He noted that many developers have deliberately shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand.
"The catalogue value of GTA is massive; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. "We expect continued revenue streams from the title long after the initial launch period." Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s plans. "We know a transition is coming at some point, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the timing and how the new GTA will integrate with the existing online ecosystem," he said. "Our 2027 outlook does factor in the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another significant driver, but beyond that we are essentially looking at historical patterns from previous GTA releases." The discussion then turned to pricing.
Rosier observed that when a flagship title like GTA VI commands a premium price, it can lift overall market price levels, even influencing indie developers. "Price elasticity is very low for a game like GTA VI because there is only one version and the demand is massive," he noted. "When the top‑end price moves up, it tends to raise the average price across the board.
We've already seen indie titles creeping up from $20 to $30 as the market adjusts." While consoles are poised for modest growth, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator globally. Mobile is expected to capture 57% of total industry revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI.
In its first week of availability, pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the game’s massive hype and the willingness of consumers to spend upfront for a highly anticipated title. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of the new Switch 2 hardware and the blockbuster release is expected to deliver modest but meaningful growth, while mobile continues to dominate the broader gaming economy. The long‑term outlook for GTA VI remains positive, with expectations of sustained revenue from both the base game and its online components, even as the industry watches for Take‑Two’s next moves regarding the transition of GTA Online.