In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially be flat in 2026 if it were not for the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. According to Rosier, Rockstar’s highly anticipated crime‑action title is the single most powerful catalyst that will keep console revenues from slipping year‑over‑year.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, though secondary, driver of the platform’s performance. Rosier explained, “There are two forces shaping the current and future health of the console ecosystem: the launch of the Switch 2 and, of course, the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward.” He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the impact: “If Grand Theft Auto VI weren’t releasing in 2026, the console segment would actually contract compared with 2025.
GTA is the key reason we’re seeing positive growth this year.” Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report reinforces this narrative, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, reaching an estimated $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry. The report also notes that the title’s release will likely be cannibalistic to other games, prompting many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with the blockbuster.
When asked whether the surge in sales driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. “The GTA catalogue is a massive asset,” he said. “The story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch; the title has a long tail of post‑launch content and online services that will continue to generate revenue.” He admitted that the specifics of GTA Online’s future remain unclear, noting that Take‑Two has not disclosed a concrete transition plan between the existing online ecosystem and the new title.
Nonetheless, Rosier expects the PC release of GTA VI in 2027 to be a major revenue driver, even though precise details are still unknown. The discussion also touched on pricing dynamics. Rosier observed that when a flagship title like GTA VI commands a premium price, it can lift the overall price floor for the industry.
“Price elasticity is very low for a game like GTA VI because there’s only one version,” he explained. “When top‑tier pricing rises, it tends to ripple through the market, nudging indie titles toward higher price points as well.” He noted that while not every publisher can match the price tag, the trend often leads to a modest increase in average game prices across the board.
Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant platform globally, accounting for 57% of total gaming revenue in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year growth. This expansion is driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, which are giving developers more control over pricing and distribution. The report also recalled an earlier forecast that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the massive appetite for the title even before its official launch. This early revenue stream, combined with the anticipated post‑launch sales surge, illustrates why Newzoo sees GTA VI as a linchpin for console market health in 2026.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console landscape that would otherwise be stagnant without the gravitational pull of Grand Theft Auto VI. The game’s expected 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending, together with the buzz surrounding the Switch 2, are projected to push console revenues to $46.9 billion—a modest but meaningful increase.
While uncertainties remain regarding the future of GTA Online and the exact timing of the PC launch, the consensus among analysts is clear: GTA VI is not just a blockbuster; it is a market‑shaping event that will keep the console segment buoyant in 2026 and likely beyond.