The Future of the Games Industry: Growth or Plateau?

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about unprecedented growth in the games industry, but recent years have seen a significant slowdown. This raises a crucial question: will the industry experience renewed growth, or has it reached a point of maturity where the market is saturated? To address this, two essays have been compiled, presenting opposing viewpoints from industry experts. One essay, by Chris Petrovic, chief business officer at FunPlus, argues that growth will persist, albeit driven by different factors. The second essay, by Dr Pejman Mirza-Babaei, dean of the School of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies at Ontario Tech University, posits that the industry may be entering a post-growth phase, necessitating a redefinition of success. The games industry, like other business sectors, is subject to cycles of growth and decline. Historically, the industry has experienced numerous peaks and valleys, influenced by technological advancements, shifts in business models, and changes in consumer preferences. The early 2020s saw significant events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Apple's privacy changes, and the end of zero-interest rate policies, leading to recessionary trends and lower valuations. Despite this, the market is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower rate, driven by evolving business models, content, and distribution methods. A key factor contributing to the current unease about the industry's growth is the changing landscape of commercial success, with emerging game development hubs in countries like China, Turkey, and Vietnam. As the industry matures, consumers are likely to spend more time playing fewer games, leading to consolidated growth across fewer companies. The industry must adapt to the evolving preferences of digital-native generations, such as Gen Z and Gen Alpha, who have limited time and attention to allocate to their pursuits. Despite the challenges, the games industry is well-positioned to continue leading the entertainment and socialization landscape for these younger generations. For decades, the industry has operated under an economic model that expects constant growth, but this may no longer be sustainable. The concept of post-growth economics suggests that endless expansion is not a viable or desirable goal, and that stability, sustainability, and quality of life should be the primary objectives. Applying this idea to the games industry, success could be redefined to encompass factors beyond revenue, such as worker well-being, creative impact, fair labor practices, and environmental responsibility. By adopting a more human-centered approach to defining success, the industry can thrive even in a post-growth environment. This requires a shift in mindset, prioritizing economic stability, quality, and craft, as well as personal and team development, meaning, and cultural impact. Ultimately, the games industry's future depends on its ability to adapt and redefine success in a way that prioritizes the well-being of its workers, the environment, and the community.