Rethinking Game Success: Why Steam Wishlists Are No Longer Enough

Eden Chen, CEO and founder of Pragma, the company behind the FirstLook playtesting and community management platform, discusses the shift in predicting game success. Since digital distribution became the norm for PC games, Steam wishlists have been the primary indicator of a game's potential commercial success. However, this approach no longer holds up, as conversion rates have decreased and high-profile failures have led to a decline in player trust in pre-orders. Studios that rely too heavily on wishlists often experience disappointing launches and poor player engagement. While wishlists still serve a purpose in terms of visibility and signaling interest, they only provide a partial picture. A more comprehensive set of signals is necessary to accurately gauge engagement, community, and staying power. Predicting success is not just about forecasting sales; it also influences marketing strategies, IP development, and communication with publishers and investors. Wishlists alone cannot provide this information, but a broader range of signals can. The industry's obsession with wishlists stems from their ability to boost visibility in the Steam algorithm, keeping games top of mind during launches and discounts. However, wishlists do not always translate to purchases, as some players add games to their wishlists without intending to buy them, while others may add a game to support a studio without following through. A study by Video Game Insights found that only about 6% of games achieve the momentum needed to break through 100,000 wishlists. Most games have significantly lower wishlist numbers, and even achieving impressive numbers does not guarantee long-term success. For new IPs or indie studios, relying solely on wishlists can be misleading. A better approach is to measure community health and playtest retention by analyzing player behavior before and after they add a game to their wishlist. This includes tracking Discord growth, analyzing feedback, and monitoring social content engagement. These indicators provide a more accurate picture of a game's potential for success. By focusing on community activity and retention, studios can identify the signals that map to sustained engagement and forecast sales and retention more confidently. This approach can help AAA studios de-risk their game launches and make informed decisions about their investments. Similarly, indie studios can use this data to demonstrate proof of momentum to publishers and investors, increasing their chances of securing a publishing deal or investment. Ultimately, building a strong community from the ground up is key to generating success in the games industry.