Will Switch 2 Break Nintendo's Historical Sequel Curse?

The highly anticipated launch of Switch 2 has generated significant buzz, reminiscent of iconic console launches from the past. Following the relatively low-key releases of PS5 and Xbox Series X/S amidst the pandemic, this major hardware launch is a much-needed boost for the gaming industry, especially during economically uncertain times. However, Switch 2's launch may share a common challenge with the PS5 - supply constraints. Despite Nintendo's efforts to manage stock and prevent scalping by requiring active Nintendo accounts for pre-orders, demand is expected to outstrip supply for several months. This situation mirrors the PS5 launch, where high demand and limited supply led to frustration among consumers and opportunities for scalpers. Forecasting demand for consoles is complex, and increasing supply is not straightforward due to the need for significant production adjustments, which are costly and risky. Nintendo aims to sell 15 million Switch 2 units in the fiscal year, a conservative target considering the original Switch has sold over 150 million units and remains widely popular. The new console's launch benefits from being a direct sequel with the same form factor and functionality, making it an attractive upgrade for existing Switch owners. The handheld nature of the Switch also makes it easier for consumers to upgrade and pass down their old consoles. Given these factors, the 15 million target seems conservative, and supply constraints are likely to persist, especially as new titles are announced. Nintendo's cautious approach is understandable, given the company's history of successful consoles being followed by less successful ones. However, by sticking to a winning formula, Switch 2 is poised to break this curse. Despite economic uncertainties, the strong initial response to the console and the potential for a significant installed base by the end of the financial year make Switch 2 an exciting addition to the gaming landscape, offering opportunities for developers and publishers. As the console's market grows, it will be interesting to see if it follows in the footsteps of its predecessor in supporting smaller and independent titles, and if Nintendo will implement better quality control measures to maintain a healthy market.