What's the Magic Number of Players for a Game's Survival?

The recent news of Sony's decision to potentially pull the plug on its live service hero shooter, Concord, has raised questions about the viability of online games. With reports of low sales and player counts, the game's fate may not come as a surprise. But what exactly determines a game's survival? Is it purely a matter of player numbers, or are there other factors at play? To shed some light on this, we spoke to industry experts and analysts. According to Piers Harding-Rolls, head of games research at Ampere Analysis, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. 'There are so many variables in play here that it's not really possible to answer this. For one game, it might be 200,000 monthly active users, for another, two million.' He cites factors such as R&D investment, staffing costs, marketing spend, and infrastructure costs, all of which vary greatly from game to game. Guha Bala, co-founder of Velan Studios, echoes this sentiment, stating that deciding whether or not to end an online game is a 'nuanced issue.' The number of active players required to survive depends on a range of factors, including the type of game. For a PvP multiplayer game, Bala suggests that each region should have a peak concurrent user count of 10,000. However, games that aren't built around skill-based matchmaking can survive with a lower number of players, around 5,000 concurrent users per region. PvE games, on the other hand, can function with even fewer, around 1,000 to 3,000 concurrent users per region. The business model also plays a significant role in a game's survival. With free-to-play games, for example, at least 5% of the total userbase need to be spending in order to maintain costs. This means the number of concurrent users needed to be economically viable might be closer to 50,000 or more for some free-to-play titles. Concord, which opted for a mid-range price point and did not feature microtransactions or a battle pass, generated revenue purely from sales. However, with a $40 price tag and a large team of at least 150 staff, the game's costs were likely substantial. Despite the challenges, Bala believes that more live service games need to be built around the premium model. 'Personally, I think for there to be an explosion of innovation in the PvP area, we need to find more routes to experiences that players would pay for up front,' he says. As the gaming landscape continues to evolve, it's clear that launching a new live service title will only become more challenging. With millions of players invested in established titles, enticing them to try a new game is no easy feat. Whether Concord will be the last short-lived online game remains to be seen, but one thing is certain – the magic number of players required for a game's survival will continue to be a topic of discussion in the industry.