The Shifting Landscape of Indie Game Publishing: A New Era Emerges

The recent difficulties faced by Humble Games are a stark reminder of the harsh realities of the current market. Over the past 18 months, the industry has witnessed a decline in game revenue, coupled with rising costs and over-investment. However, it's not just the economic climate that's causing concern - fundamental shifts in the marketplace are also making it harder for publishers to compete. According to Simon Byron, MD of Yogscast Games, the unpredictability of the market is a major challenge. 'I've been in publishing for almost ten years, and it's always been uncertain,' he says. 'You can never predict exactly how a game will perform before it's out. You can have a sense, sure, but accurately forecasting a game's sales is impossible.' The rise of subscription services, aggressive discounting, and oversaturation have all contributed to a perfect storm that's leaving many publishers struggling to stay afloat. As a result, some are becoming risk-averse, seeking more predictable sources of revenue. John Clark, who has held various publishing roles, notes that publishers are re-balancing their businesses to prioritize stability over risk. 'More predictable catalogue and long tail games performance underpins stability for publishers, whereas the risk is mostly investing in new IP and new games of existing IP,' he explains. However, this approach can be counterproductive, as Devolver's Nigel Lowrie points out. 'Those that are willing to experiment and remain agile will find their hits and build an engaged audience,' he says. 'Playing it safe isn't going to be very safe at all.' The market has shifted to favor specialists, with newer, smaller publishers making a significant impact. 'Relatively new publishers such as Kepler and Hooded Horse are making a strong impact, it's refreshing to see,' Clark says. 'They seem to be well-structured, with smaller teams, close to the games and developers, with a very clear understanding of their niche.' The era of the generalist indie publisher is indeed over, with publishers needing to have a focused offering to succeed. Self-publishing is also becoming an increasingly viable option for indie teams, with many successes in recent years. As the industry continues to evolve, it's likely that we'll see new, creative publishers and studios emerge, driving innovation and pushing the medium forward in unexpected directions.