Can GTA 6 Break the PS4 Stalemate for PlayStation?

A common phrase circulating within the gaming industry is 'Survival until 2025.' The expectation is that next year will bring a resurgence in the gaming business after two years of declining sales and widespread layoffs. Several factors contribute to this optimism, including the anticipated economic recovery, decreased inflation rates, and the launch of new Nintendo consoles, all of which should boost consumer spending and investment. Additionally, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to play a significant role in this revival. The next GTA installment is poised to be a landmark event in the gaming world, potentially becoming the biggest entertainment launch of all time. It will undoubtedly draw attention to the industry, drive retail sales, increase traffic for gaming media, and stimulate hardware sales. However, not all game publishers and developers will benefit from GTA 6's release. In fact, any game that launches within a six-week window of Grand Theft Auto does so at its own peril, and live service games should prepare for a significant decline in average playtime. One aspect that industry insiders hope GTA 6 will address is the 'PS4 problem.' Despite the console market's slowdown, PlayStation's revenue has increased significantly with the PS5, and the number of engaged users remains healthy. Nevertheless, a substantial portion of these users are still gaming on their PS4 consoles. This phenomenon is not unusual, but it is more pronounced this time due to the popularity of live service titles. According to Newzoo's latest playtime chart, the most played PlayStation games are primarily available on PS4, with the exception of Ubisoft's XDefiant. Minecraft, although available on PS5, has only been playable as a PS4 version until now. Furthermore, market analysts Ampere report that the most active platform for GTA Online, with over 20 million active users, is the PS4 by a significant margin. This situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for PlayStation. While the company remains confident that the PS5 will eventually surpass the PS4 in popularity, it must be cautious not to lose its existing customer base to competitors like Xbox, Nintendo, and PC gaming. The release of Grand Theft Auto 6 could be a crucial factor in convincing gamers to upgrade to the latest hardware. As Ampere's lead games analyst Piers Harding-Rolls notes, 'By the time GTA 6 launches, more GTA Online gamers will have transitioned to the latest consoles, yet there will likely still be a noteworthy share of players across older devices and on PC.' Rockstar will need to navigate this transitional challenge, maintaining multiple communities as the user base splits following the launch of GTA 6. If any game can prompt players to upgrade, it is Grand Theft Auto. With potential plans for upgraded and handheld versions of the latest consoles, 2025 could be a pivotal year for the future of gaming consoles. Ultimately, the situation raises questions about the future of console generations and what PlayStation 6 might look like. As gamers take longer to transition between generations and AAA games require more time to develop, the traditional seven-year generational cycle may no longer be effective. For now, the focus is on encouraging the remaining fans to upgrade from their DualShocks to DualSense controllers, a feat that will require something special – and all eyes are on Grand Theft Auto 6.