Evaluating 2023: A Year of New Games and Industry Trends

This analysis assesses the state of the gaming industry in 2023 by examining the number of new games in the Top 10 and Top 20 US sales charts and comparing it to previous years. Despite the conventional wisdom that 2022 was a poor year for new games, the data suggests that 2022 was actually better than the two preceding years. Similarly, 2023 has seen a strong lineup of new releases, with 35 new games making the Top 10 charts in the first ten months, exceeding the average of 32.3 from 2016 to 2022. The number of new games in the Top 20 charts has also been impressive, with 47 new releases, surpassing the average of 40.4 from 2018 to 2022. However, despite this strong performance, the actual sales figures have not shown the expected year-over-year growth, with only a 1% increase in US consumer spending on games through October. This disparity raises questions about the relationship between the quality of new games and overall industry sales. An examination of the number of new releases with a Metacritic average of 90 or more since 2004 reveals that 2023 has been a good year for games, with 25 releases meeting this criterion, the highest in 20 years. The data also suggests that the flow of new commercial hits may not reliably line up with game sales, and that other factors, such as the economy, may play a more significant role. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that US consumer spending has only declined twice since 2004, and game spending has been all over the map, rising and falling with almost equal frequency. The closest correlate found for industry sales was an amalgamation of subjective assessments, specifically the number of new releases with a high Metacritic average. The state of games industry data is also a concern, with the NPD's numbers having been inconsistent and unreliable in the past. The switch to reporting comprehensive numbers, including mobile and digital sales, has improved the data, but it still has its limitations. The industry's growth and increasing complexity have made it challenging to track and report on the various ways people spend money on games. As the industry continues to evolve, it is essential to develop more accurate and reliable methods for measuring its performance.