The Crucial Role of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and the Super Mario Bros Movie in Switch 2's Success

Nintendo has historically faced challenges during console transitions, largely due to its reliance on in-house games to drive hardware sales. This delicate balance is crucial as the company needs to sustain interest in its current console while preparing for the next generation. The final years of Nintendo's previous consoles, such as the N64, have often been marked by a lack of significant releases, resulting in a loss of momentum. As such, the transition from the current Switch to its successor is being closely watched. Analysts predict a late 2024 release for the next Nintendo console, which seems plausible given the ongoing popularity of the Switch and the strategic timing of hardware releases. The success of the next console will ultimately depend on the readiness of its games. With the Switch 2 not expected imminently and sales momentum slowing down, the current quarter is critical. A significant decline in sales was observed in the first quarter, and certain Switch games have underperformed. This trend is reminiscent of the Wii's decline in 2011 and 2012, which resulted in a poor finish to one of Nintendo's strongest generations. However, the Switch is not following the same path as the Wii. Although sales are decreasing, the console still maintains a large and engaged audience, with 112 million annual users in 2022. The success of games like Pokémon Scarlet and Violet and Splatoon 3 also indicates that Nintendo's titles continue to perform well. The company has more engagement options available now, including Mario Kart DLC and additional content for its Switch Online service. To generate engagement, stimulate console sales, and provide crucial momentum, Nintendo is relying on two major releases: the Mario movie and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. The Mario movie has had a strong start at the box office, and Nintendo is actively promoting the Switch through special hardware bundles and activity on Mario titles. This approach contrasts with Sony's and Sega's strategies for their respective movie adaptations. The Mario activity aims to attract new users to the Switch ecosystem, and there have been modest sales increases for Switch and Mario games in the UK. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is the more significant release, building upon the success of Breath of the Wild, which has sold over 30 million copies. Tears of the Kingdom aims to replicate this success by introducing new gameplay mechanics, such as the ability to create vehicles and weapons, which could lead to emergent gameplay elements similar to its predecessor. The recent Zelda direct has reassured fans, and the game's potential to maintain momentum beyond its launch is high. Tears of the Kingdom is crucial for the Switch, and its success, along with the Mario movie, could provide the necessary momentum for Nintendo to transition into a new generation with a large and active audience.