The frenzy surrounding live‑service games has been well documented over the last ten years. The industry was convinced that every new title could be turned into a perpetual revenue stream, a belief that led to billions of dollars spent and countless development hours poured into projects that often failed to resonate with players.
This obsession burned through consumer goodwill, devalued beloved intellectual properties, and left a trail of executive missteps that still haunts the sector. Major publishers and platform owners scoured their back‑catalogues, hunting for the next "Fortnite‑level" live‑service hit. The odds of striking gold were slim, yet the logic was that a single blockbuster could offset a slew of failures. In practice, this gamble was built on three faulty assumptions.
First, the success rate of live‑service titles was vastly overstated, meaning the risk was far higher than companies admitted. Second, the market’s capacity to support multiple large‑scale live services at once was grossly exaggerated.
Third, and perhaps most critically, firms underestimated the difficulty of running a live service: the razor‑thin line between profit and player alienation was often ignored. The fallout was industry‑wide.
Studios faced layoffs, projects were cancelled, and some development houses shut their doors entirely. Those who bore the brunt of these cuts were often the employees and teams with the least say in the strategic decisions that led to the disaster.
While many companies felt the tremors of the live‑service mania, Sony stands out as the most conspicuous example of a mis‑step that reshaped an entire console generation. Sony’s aggressive pivot to live services epitomised the broader industry error. The company announced an ambitious plan to launch a dozen live‑service games by March of a recent year, only to backtrack months later amid a series of underwhelming launches and cancelled projects.
Jason Schreier’s recent investigation into Guerrilla Games’ "Horizon Hunters Gathering" illustrates the hidden costs of this strategy. The title, originally envisioned as a live‑service experience, performed poorly in internal testing and is now being re‑engineered as a conventional multiplayer game.
This mirrors other cases, such as "Dragon Age: The Veilguard," which was similarly stripped of its live‑service ambitions late in development. What makes the Guerrilla situation particularly striking is that the studio has been singularly focused on "Hunters Gathering" since finishing the DLC for "Horizon: Forbidden West." Consequently, there is currently no major sequel in the works for the Horizon franchise. Whether or not "Hunters Gathering" ever reaches consumers, the opportunity cost for Sony is staggering: one of its most successful first‑party studios will not deliver a flagship exclusive for the PS5 era.
The next Horizon installment is now likely to arrive well into the lifespan of the forthcoming PS6, leaving a substantial gap in Sony’s exclusive lineup. This misallocation of resources is not confined to Guerrilla.
Observers have noted conspicuous absences elsewhere in Sony’s schedule. Naughty Dog, for instance, has not released a new title since 2020, with its PS5 releases limited to remasters while a planned "Last of Us" live‑service game was scrapped.
Other studios, such as Sucker Punch and Santa Monica Studio, appear to have dodged the live‑service curse, but their relative success may be the exception rather than the rule. The timing of these gaps could not be worse for Sony. The perception that the PS5 lacks compelling exclusives has become a meme, even if the console still boasts a sizable library. The absence of key franchises and studios from the current slate undermines consumer confidence just as Sony prepares to launch what could be its most expensive console yet.
In response, Sony is attempting to revert to the development philosophy that powered the PS4 era, trying to salvage what remains of the live‑service experiment and the costly Bungie acquisition that was meant to bolster it. However, modern game development is a long‑lead process. Building a pipeline of high‑quality releases requires years of planning, and no amount of capital can instantly create a robust slate if work did not begin well in advance. This mirrors the challenge Microsoft faced when it entered the current generation, underscoring a fundamental truth: strategic missteps are costly not only in dollars but in lost time.
Financial reports can gloss over these miscalculations, reducing them to line‑item variances of ten or a hundred million dollars. Yet opportunity cost is far more insidious. When premier studios waste years on ill‑conceived side projects, they miss an entire console generation, eroding brand equity and weakening the relationship with consumers. The impact lingers long after the cancelled live‑service game fades from memory.
In the annals of gaming history, Sony’s ill‑judged pivot may prove to be the most expensive error of all. The hidden price tag—years of development time lost, flagship exclusives delayed, and consumer trust diminished—cannot be captured in a quarterly earnings statement, but it will shape the competitive landscape for years to come.