In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if not for the release of Rockstar Games’ highly anticipated title, Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that GTA VI is the singular catalyst that will keep console revenues from slipping year over year, and he also highlighted Nintendo’s forthcoming Switch 2 as another supportive factor.
"Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the upcoming Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year," Rosier explained. "If GTA VI were delayed or cancelled, we would likely see a decline in console revenue compared with 2025.
The game is acting as a growth engine for the whole platform segment in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up this assessment, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by the firm. Rosier also noted that GTA VI’s launch will inevitably be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that explains why many developers are strategically shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s enduring catalogue strength means the impact will likely persist beyond the initial launch window.
"The GTA brand has a long tail," he said. "We can’t assume the market impact ends in 2026. The sequel’s online component, GTA Online, will continue to generate revenue, but Take‑Two has been vague about its future roadmap, so we can’t pinpoint exactly how the transition will play out. Our 2027 outlook already includes the PC release of GTA VI, which will be another major revenue driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is remarkably low.
"There’s only one GTA VI," he said, "so consumers are willing to pay a premium. When a flagship game raises its price, it often lifts the overall price floor for the industry, even influencing indie titles that might see price hikes from $20 to $30." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed that mobile remains the dominant platform, accounting for 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher average spend per player and the expanding influence of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also referenced early pre‑order data for GTA VI, noting that the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue during the first week of pre‑order availability.
This strong start underscores the franchise’s ability to mobilize a massive audience and set the tone for the broader market. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console sector that would otherwise be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a new Nintendo hardware refresh and the blockbuster release creates a rare growth window for an industry that has been increasingly challenged by mobile’s ascendancy. While uncertainties remain around the future of GTA Online and the exact timing of subsequent releases, the data suggests that 2026 will be a pivotal year for console manufacturers and publishers alike, anchored largely by the magnetic pull of Rockstar’s latest offering.