Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the team behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transformation. He described the current moment as a "transitional phase," emphasizing that the formulas and assumptions that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance. "Sometimes there's been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani remarked.
"It's just that the things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much.
Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that's the reality." He identified three major forces reshaping the landscape. First, the continued ascent of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region is reshaping market dynamics. This year's Gamescom Opening Night Live, for instance, highlighted the technical and creative capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a shift that has been building for roughly a decade but now feels inevitable.
"There's always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani said. "That's been ongoing for the last 10 years, but now it's reached a point where it's game after game after game that's really making it." China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of production quality.
While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—its developers are accelerating the pace at which they bring titles to market. Jorjani believes artificial intelligence is amplifying this speed, allowing studios to iterate faster and release more content across platforms.
The second catalyst is the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence. Jorjani warned that AI introduces a level of uncertainty that makes long‑range forecasting extremely difficult. He contrasted the West's cautious, ethically‑focused debate—centered on data usage, training rights, and artistic integrity—with the East's pragmatic embrace of the technology.
"In the West, we're asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds. Whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," he explained. This cultural divide, he suggested, will likely cause Western studios to adopt AI more slowly, even though the eventual uptake is inevitable.
Beyond AI, Jorjani highlighted the structural challenge of long development cycles for AAA titles. Projects that demand five to six years of coordinated effort across multiple time zones create a high‑risk environment.
In response, many Western publishers have leaned heavily on established franchises, using brand recognition as a hedge against market volatility. "The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability," he said. Players know what to expect from a familiar name, reducing the anxiety associated with untested intellectual property.
However, this reliance on legacy brands can also lead to "analysis paralysis" for consumers, who are bombarded with an ever‑growing catalogue of releases. Jorjani cited Steam data indicating that roughly half of all playtime is spent on games older than 18 months, suggesting that gamers often gravitate toward known titles rather than exploring new experiences.
This trend creates a paradox: while there is vocal demand for fresh IP, purchasing behavior still favors remakes, sequels, and recognizable franchises. In this context, indie developers possess a strategic advantage.
Jorjani pointed to companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which maintain pipelines of multiple projects but achieve breakthrough success with only a few hits. For smaller studios, the ability to validate concepts early—through quick prototypes, community GIFs, or limited‑release demos—offers a way to mitigate risk without the massive budgets required for AAA development. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he asserted. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you're on track, onto something, and you can iterate." Arrowhead itself is applying this philosophy to its upcoming project.
Inspired by mobile‑gaming practices, where concepts are often tested via ad performance before full production, the studio plans to place early builds directly into the hands of a carefully selected player cohort. Jorjani described a scenario in which 100 dedicated Helldivers fans would be asked about their favorite IPs and gameplay preferences. By comparing responses from players who love alien‑themed shooters with those who do not, the team hopes to fine‑tune its design direction early, rather than waiting for a massive marketing push after years of development.
This approach reflects a broader industry shift toward agile, data‑driven development cycles. Instead of keeping a game under wraps for years—a practice he dubbed "playing your cards close to the chest"—Arrowhead aims to iterate openly, gather real‑world feedback, and adapt quickly. Jorjani believes that such transparency not only reduces financial exposure but also aligns product development with the evolving tastes of a fragmented, globally connected audience.
In summary, Jorjani’s outlook paints a picture of an industry at a crossroads. Long development timelines, the rise of high‑quality Asian studios, and the transformative power of AI are rewriting the rules of engagement.
While established franchises continue to provide a safety net for risk‑averse publishers, independent studios that can validate ideas rapidly and engage directly with niche communities are poised to thrive. Arrowhead’s own strategy—leveraging early player feedback, embracing AI tools, and learning from mobile‑gaming’s rapid‑iteration mindset—exemplifies the kind of adaptive thinking that may define the next era of game creation.