In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console segment would essentially break even with 2025 if Rockstar Games did not launch Grand Theft Auto VI this year. According to Rosier, the much‑anticipated open‑world crime saga is the single catalyst that will push the console market into positive growth territory for 2026.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor, but emphasized that GTA VI is the dominant driver. "There are two forces shaping the current and near‑future health of consoles: the new Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will lift the whole market," Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz.
"If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline in console revenue. The title is truly the engine behind the sector’s modest expansion." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s statements.
The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console earnings for 2026, taking total revenue to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth engine among all business models tracked by Newzoo. Rosier also cautioned that GTA VI’s launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted many developers to shift their release windows in order to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. When asked whether the market would experience a dramatic "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s enduring catalogue value means the impact will extend well beyond the launch year.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is immense," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue through its online component and future updates." Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the platform’s roadmap.
"We know a transition is coming at some point, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing and the exact fit between the current online ecosystem and the new game," he said. "Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be a major revenue driver, but we are essentially extrapolating from past patterns of previous GTA releases." When the conversation turned to pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA VI is extremely low. "Only one GTA VI exists, and demand is enormous. When a premium price is set, it tends to lift the entire market, even influencing indie titles to raise their price points from $20 to $30," he explained.
"Everyone has been waiting for years, and while not every developer can match that price, the overall upward pressure on pricing is evident." The report also reaffirmed that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator across all platforms, accounting for 57% of global game sales in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher average spend per player and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
In a related data point, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders alone generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscating the franchise’s massive pull. Overall, the consensus among analysts is clear: without the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely see flat or even declining revenues in 2026. The combination of the new Switch 2 hardware and Rockstar’s flagship title creates a rare alignment of hardware and software momentum that is expected to drive the sector’s modest but meaningful growth. While the exact shape of GTA Online’s future remains uncertain, the franchise’s proven ability to command high spending and influence pricing trends suggests that its impact will reverberate throughout the industry for years to come.