In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if not for the release of Rockstar Games’ highly anticipated title, Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the blockbuster crime‑drama is the single most important catalyst for any growth in console revenues this year, and that without it the sector would actually shrink compared with 2025. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence on the console landscape, but he made clear that the two factors are not interchangeable.
“There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up,” he explained. He added that if the GTA VI launch were to be delayed or cancelled, the console market would see a year‑on‑year decline, underscoring the title’s outsized impact on the ecosystem. Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments with hard numbers.
The firm forecasts console revenue to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. In other words, the new Grand Theft Auto is not just a hit; it is a revenue engine that is expected to outpace every other genre and platform in terms of monetary contribution.
The analyst also noted that GTA VI’s launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other releases. Many developers have already shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship, a tactic that reflects the game’s market‑dominant position. When asked whether the 2026 spike in sales would be a one‑off bump that would normalize in 2027, Rosier said the strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand extends far beyond a single year. “The story doesn’t end at the end of 2026,” he said, pointing to the long‑term revenue potential of both the base game and its online component.
Speaking about GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s future plans. “We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year,” he said. “We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue.” He added that the 2027 forecast already assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will act as another significant revenue driver, but again emphasized the lack of detailed data.
Pricing dynamics also came under discussion. Rosier observed that when a premium title like GTA VI commands a higher price point, it can lift the overall market price elasticity. “The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI,” he explained.
“Everyone’s been waiting so long. It doesn’t mean that everyone can do that, but usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20.
The prices are being lifted a little bit.” This suggests that Rockstar’s pricing strategy could have a ripple effect, nudging up average game prices across the board. While consoles receive a boost from GTA VI and the Switch 2, mobile gaming continues to dominate the global revenue pie.
Newzoo’s report indicates that mobile platforms will generate $121.1 billion in 2026, accounting for 57% of total gaming revenue worldwide—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders alone generated $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s immediate commercial impact. This early revenue surge, combined with the projected 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending, paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on a single blockbuster to achieve modest growth. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis makes clear that 2026 will be a pivotal year for console manufacturers.
Without the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, the sector would likely see flat or declining revenues. With GTA VI and the upcoming Switch 2, however, the industry is poised for a modest 5.1% increase, reaching nearly $47 billion.
The data also highlights how a single high‑profile release can reshape pricing trends, affect release schedules across the industry, and act as a catalyst for broader market growth, while mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator on a global scale.