In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially plateau in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. According to Rosier, the upcoming blockbuster is the primary catalyst that will keep console revenues from slipping back to the levels seen in 2025. He also highlighted the anticipated launch of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary but still important contributor to the platform’s overall health.
Rosier explained the dynamics succinctly: “There are two main drivers behind the current and future performance of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward.” He went on to illustrate the counterfactual scenario, saying, “If Grand Theft Auto VI weren’t arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑on‑year decline for the console segment. GTA is the engine that is delivering positive growth for consoles in 2026.” Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up these statements with hard numbers.
The firm forecasts that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching approximately $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo labels as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the sector.
The impact of GTA VI is expected to be both expansive and disruptive. Rosier noted that the title’s launch will likely be “cannibalistic” to other releases, meaning that many developers are already shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship.
This strategic rescheduling underscores the magnitude of GTA VI’s market pull and its ability to dominate consumer attention and discretionary spending. When asked whether the surge in 2026 would represent a one‑off spike that would taper off in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring value of the Grand Theft Auto brand. “The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge,” he said, adding that the story does not simply end with the initial release.
“We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will fit between the current GTA and the new GTA. We do know it’s generating a lot of revenue.” Looking ahead, Newzoo’s 2027 forecast already incorporates the planned PC launch of GTA VI, which is expected to be another significant revenue driver. However, Rosier cautioned that the firm lacks concrete details about the timing or nature of that release, relying instead on historical patterns from previous Grand Theft Auto cycles.
Pricing dynamics also came under discussion. Rosier observed that when a marquee title like GTA VI commands a premium price, the entire market can feel the ripple effect. “Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow,” he explained. “The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI.” He added that the long‑awaited release has allowed Rockstar to set a higher price point without severely dampening demand.
“Everyone’s been waiting so long,” he said. “It doesn’t mean everyone can afford it, but typically when top‑tier pricing increases, it lifts the market; indie games have moved from $20 to $30, and overall price levels are nudging upward.” While consoles are set for modest growth, mobile gaming continues to dominate the global landscape.
Newzoo’s report shows that mobile platforms will again capture the largest share of worldwide gaming revenue, accounting for 57% of the total—about $121.1 billion in 2026. This represents a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase, driven by higher player spending and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The report also highlighted the early commercial success of GTA VI pre‑orders, which generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened. This early revenue stream further illustrates the title’s capacity to boost the console ecosystem and underscores why Newzoo views the game as a linchpin for the sector’s 2026 outlook.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant, buoyed into modest expansion primarily by the dual forces of Nintendo’s upcoming Switch 2 and Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. The latter’s anticipated 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending, combined with its broader influence on pricing and release schedules, positions it as the cornerstone of console growth for the year. Meanwhile, mobile gaming retains its position as the revenue powerhouse, delivering over half of global gaming income and continuing to outpace all other platforms in terms of financial performance.