According to Newzoo’s latest market outlook, the console segment would have essentially plateaued in 2026 if not for the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the primary catalyst preventing a year‑over‑year decline in console earnings.
Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, albeit secondary, driver of the platform’s modest growth. "Two forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of Switch 2 and, more importantly, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year," Rosier said.
"If GTA VI weren’t on the schedule for 2026, the console market would actually be shrinking compared with 2025. The game is delivering the positive momentum we need." Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report estimates that total console revenue will climb 5.1 % in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 %, a rate that Newzoo identifies as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry.
Rosier cautioned, however, that the blockbuster’s impact will not be uniformly positive across the board. He noted that the launch is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted several developers to shift their release windows in order to avoid direct competition with GTA VI. This strategic rescheduling underscores the game’s market‑shaping power and the ripple effects it creates throughout the publishing calendar. When asked whether the surge in 2026 might be a one‑off "GTA bump" that would normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise.
"The catalogue value of GTA is enormous," he explained. "The story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch; the title continues to generate revenue long after its initial release." He also addressed the uncertain future of GTA Online, stating, "We don’t have concrete information about how GTA Online will evolve over the next months and years. Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans, so we can only infer from past patterns.
Our 2027 forecast assumes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another significant revenue driver, but beyond that we lack definitive data." On pricing, Rosier observed that the high price point of GTA VI reflects a broader market trend where premium titles set new pricing benchmarks. "When a leading publisher raises its price, it often lifts the entire market.
Indie games that were $20 are now $30, and overall price elasticity is low because there’s only one GTA VI at the moment. The demand is inelastic; fans have waited years for this sequel, and they’re willing to pay for it." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is expected to account for 57 % of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 % year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
This continued growth further contextualizes the console sector’s performance, illustrating that while consoles benefit from marquee releases like GTA VI, the broader industry is increasingly powered by mobile experiences. The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s immediate financial impact.
This early revenue surge, combined with the projected 17.5 % uplift in full‑game spending, illustrates why Newzoo views GTA VI as a pivotal factor in keeping the console market on an upward trajectory for 2026. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant or even declining without the dual boost from the next‑generation Switch and the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI. The game’s ability to drive significant spend, influence pricing structures, and shape release strategies across the industry highlights its outsized role in the ecosystem.
Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues its rapid expansion, securing the majority share of global revenue and reinforcing the diversified nature of the modern gaming landscape.