Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance, and that the underlying assumptions that once underpinned business cases have been upended. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said.
"It’s just that the things we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work.
The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that’s the reality." He identified three major forces driving this shift.
The first is the continued rise of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the growing muscle of studios from China and South Korea, and Jorjani noted that Asian games have been making steady inroads into Western markets for a decade.
"It’s game after game after game that’s really making it," he observed, emphasizing that China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in the quality and ambition of its titles. Jorjani explained that Chinese gamers remain largely mobile‑centric, a fact that shapes design sensibilities and accelerates development cycles. "AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere," he added, linking the mobile‑first mindset to the rapid iteration enabled by artificial intelligence.
The second catalyst is AI itself. While past technologies such as virtual reality generated hype that eventually plateaued, Jorjani believes AI represents a genuine paradigm shift. He highlighted a stark cultural divide in how the West and the East approach the technology.
In Western studios, developers wrestle with ethical questions, data‑training permissions, and artistic integrity. In contrast, many Eastern studios appear to adopt AI without hesitation, treating it as a straightforward productivity tool.
"When you introduce AI to it, I understand that Western game developers have an existential crisis," Jorjani said. "I am an artist, and I’m also connecting with people on an artistic level, but when you make it into software, it’s just functional." He predicts that the West will be slower to integrate AI, but that adoption is inevitable. The unpredictability introduced by AI makes long‑range forecasting especially challenging, further complicating the already lengthy development timelines for AAA titles, which often span five to six years and involve distributed teams across multiple time zones.
Because of these extended cycles, Jorjani noted a tendency among Western publishers to lean on established franchises rather than invest heavily in new IPs. "If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works," he explained. Brand recognition, he argued, is the most reliable risk mitigator in an environment where consumers are overwhelmed by a flood of new releases. He cited the classic Worms series as an example: even if a new Worms title isn’t groundbreaking, its familiar brand gives players a clear expectation of the experience.
Data from Steam Replay 2025 supports this point: roughly 44 % of player hours were spent on games aged between one and seven years, and half of all titles played on the platform were older than 18 months. While there is vocal demand for fresh experiences, purchasing behavior often favors remakes, sequels, or recognizable franchises. Jorjani contrasted this with the indie sector, which enjoys a strategic advantage due to its agility. He pointed to companies like Riot and Supercell, which juggle multiple projects simultaneously; a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest of the pipeline, allowing resources to shift quickly.
For indie developers, early validation is crucial. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track," he said. Indie teams frequently share prototype GIFs or short videos, gauging community reaction in real time. When those snippets generate buzz, the developers can iterate rapidly, avoiding the costly, four‑year wait that large studios often endure before a full marketing push.
Arrowhead itself is adopting this fast‑feedback model for its upcoming project. Inspired by mobile‑gaming practices that test concepts through ad performance, the studio plans to place early builds directly into the hands of a curated group of players. Jorjani described a scenario where 100 dedicated Helldivers fans would be asked about their favorite IPs and gameplay preferences. By segmenting respondents—those who love aliens and enjoy Helldivers versus those who like Helldivers but not the alien theme—the team can pinpoint which audience resonates most with the new concept.
This data‑driven approach aims to shape development decisions early, rather than waiting for a massive, post‑launch marketing campaign. He concluded with a call to abandon outdated strategies: "It requires you to let go of that old playbook of playing your cards close to the chest for years, and then dazzle and razzle." In Jorjani’s view, the future belongs to studios that can iterate quickly, harness AI responsibly, and tap into the growing influence of Asian developers while still delivering experiences that feel authentic to their core audiences. The industry’s rapid transformation may be unsettling, but it also opens doors for nimble creators—especially indie teams—to thrive amid the uncertainty.