Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transitional period. He argued that the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance, and that the assumptions underpinning business cases from the previous decade are now fundamentally flawed. "Sometimes there's been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said.
"It's just that the things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had.
No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that's the reality." He identified three inter‑related forces driving this shift.
First, the steady rise of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region has reshaped the global market. This year's Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the growing creative muscle of studios from China and South Korea, demonstrating that Asian games are no longer niche imports but mainstream contenders. "There's always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani noted. "That's been ongoing for the last ten years, but now it's reached a point where it's game after game after game that's really making it." China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of production quality and ambition.
While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—Jorjani believes the rapid pace of development there is being accelerated by artificial intelligence. AI tools are enabling studios to iterate faster, generate assets more efficiently, and compress timelines that previously spanned years. The second catalyst is the emergence of artificial intelligence as a disruptive technology.
Jorjani cautioned that AI introduces a level of market unpredictability that makes medium‑term forecasting extremely difficult. He contrasted the ethical debates dominating the West—questions about data usage, copyright, and artistic integrity—with the pragmatic, almost indifferent stance taken by many Eastern developers. "In the West, we're asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds.
Whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," he explained. He added that Western creators may experience an "existential crisis" as AI blurs the line between artistic expression and functional software.
Nevertheless, Jorjani expects the technology to be adopted eventually, albeit more slowly, because the core need to produce functional code will eventually outweigh moral hesitations. The third factor is the sheer length of development cycles for AAA titles. Projects that require five to six years of work, often spread across multiple studios and time zones, carry massive financial risk.
To mitigate that risk, publishers lean heavily on established brands and recognizable IPs. Jorjani observed that when consumers are faced with a flood of new releases, they gravitate toward familiar names as a safe bet. He cited Steam data indicating that a substantial portion of playtime is spent on games older than eighteen months, underscoring the market's preference for known quantities.
This environment, however, creates an opening for indie developers. Because smaller teams can prototype, test, and iterate within weeks rather than years, they can validate concepts early and adjust before large sums are sunk into production.
"The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," Jorjani said. He pointed to examples like Tiny Glade, whose early GIFs generated viral buzz and helped the team refine the product in real time. In contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle forces studios to wait until a game is essentially finished before launching a massive marketing push, a strategy that is increasingly risky. Arrowhead itself is embracing this indie‑style approach for its next project.
The studio plans to involve a select group of dedicated Helldivers players early in development, gathering feedback on preferences such as favorite IPs, themes, and gameplay mechanics. By segmenting the audience—e.g., players who love aliens versus those who simply enjoy the Helldivers brand—the team hopes to fine‑tune the experience for a niche but passionate demographic.
This method mirrors mobile‑gaming practices where concepts are A/B tested through ads before full production. Jorjani also highlighted how companies like Riot Games and Supercell maintain multiple projects in parallel, allowing a single breakout hit to subsidize the others. This portfolio strategy reduces reliance on any one title and provides a safety net for experimentation. Indie studios, with their lean structures, can achieve a similar effect by releasing smaller, iterative experiences that keep the community engaged while gathering data.
Looking ahead, Jorjani believes the industry will continue to evolve along three axes: greater influence from Asian developers, deeper integration of AI across the production pipeline, and a shift toward shorter, feedback‑driven development cycles. He warned that clinging to outdated playbooks—waiting years to reveal a product, relying solely on brand power, and ignoring early user input—will leave companies vulnerable. In summary, the gaming landscape is no longer governed by the assumptions that held true from 2010 to 2020.
Long development timelines, the ascent of Asian studios, and the disruptive potential of AI have collectively rewritten the rules of the game. While large publishers scramble to adapt, independent developers who can prototype quickly, validate early, and target specific audience segments are poised to thrive in this new era.
Arrowhead Game Studios intends to lead by example, leveraging early player feedback, AI‑enhanced tools, and a focused brand strategy to navigate the uncertain yet opportunity‑rich future of interactive entertainment.