In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially plateau in 2026 if the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) did not arrive on schedule. According to Rosier, the only forces currently capable of nudging console revenues upward are the upcoming launch of GTA 6 and the anticipated release of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2. Rosier explained that the two primary growth drivers for the console segment are, first, the new Switch model, which is expected to inject fresh demand into the hardware and software ecosystem, and second, the blockbuster title from Rockstar Games. “If GTA 6 were not slated for release this year, we would actually see a year‑on‑year decline in console revenue,” he told GamesIndustry.biz.
“The franchise’s sheer pull is what keeps the console market in positive territory for 2026.” Newzoo’s most recent Global Games Market Report backs up this assessment, projecting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for the year, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA 6 is forecast to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, making it the strongest growth catalyst among all business models tracked by the firm. The analyst also noted that GTA 6’s release will likely be cannibalistic to some other titles. Many developers have already shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship game, a strategy that underscores the magnitude of GTA 6’s market impact.
When asked whether the surge in sales driven by GTA 6 would be a one‑off spike that normalizes in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. “Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a long tail,” he said. “The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, online modes, and future platform releases.” Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s plans. “We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the timeline.
Our 2027 forecast assumes a PC launch of GTA 6, which will be a major revenue driver, but beyond that we’re extrapolating from the patterns observed with previous GTA releases.” Price elasticity also came up in the conversation. Rosier observed that the pricing power of a singular, highly anticipated title like GTA 6 is unusually strong.
“When a premium title commands a higher price, it tends to lift the overall market,” he explained. “Indie games that once sold for $20 are now often priced at $30, reflecting a broader upward shift in consumer willingness to spend.” While consoles are poised for modest growth, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is expected to account for 57% of total global game revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion—up 6.8% from the previous year.
This growth is driven by higher average spend per player and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. In addition to the macro‑level forecasts, Newzoo highlighted a striking figure for GTA 6 pre‑orders: the title generated roughly $260 million in its first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull even before the full game launched. Overall, the data suggest that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the console ecosystem.
Without the catalytic effect of GTA 6, the sector could see flat or even declining revenues, but the combination of a new Nintendo Switch iteration and Rockstar’s flagship release is set to keep the console market on a gentle upward trajectory. At the same time, mobile gaming’s share of the global pie continues to expand, reinforcing its position as the primary engine of growth in the broader video‑game industry.