Newzoo Predicts Console Earnings Would Stagnate in 2026 Without GTA 6

In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially plateau in 2026 if not for the release of Rockstar Games’ highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI. According to Rosier, the upcoming title is the single most important catalyst that will prevent a year‑over‑year decline for console manufacturers and publishers.

Rosier explained that two primary forces are shaping the console landscape this year. The first is the anticipated launch of the Nintendo Switch 2, which continues to generate strong consumer interest and hardware sales.

The second, and far more influential, is Grand Theft Auto VI, which he expects to lift overall console spending dramatically. "If Grand Theft Auto VI were not arriving in 2026, we would likely see the console segment contract compared with 2025," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz. "GTA VI is the engine driving positive growth for the platform this year." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion.

Within that figure, the company predicts that GTA VI will alone raise full‑game spend on consoles by an estimated 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. This surge is expected to outpace the modest gains seen in other segments, such as subscription services and microtransactions. The impact of GTA VI is not limited to direct sales.

Rosier noted that the game’s release will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, as many developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. This phenomenon, often referred to as a "GTA bump," can temporarily suppress the performance of other releases but also creates a ripple effect that benefits the broader ecosystem through heightened consumer spending on related content, such as downloadable expansions and in‑game purchases.

When asked whether the 2026 spike in revenue would normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The catalogue value of GTA is massive," he said. "The story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch; the title continues to generate revenue through GTA Online and future updates." Rosier was candid about the uncertainty surrounding GTA Online’s trajectory.

"We have no concrete information about how GTA Online will evolve in the coming months and year," he admitted. "Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about the transition plan between the current online experience and the new title.

However, we do know that GTA Online remains a significant revenue stream, and its performance will influence the overall market outlook for 2027." The price elasticity of GTA VI also emerged as a point of discussion. Rosier argued that the game’s pricing power is unusually high because there is only one GTA VI on the market, giving it a near‑monopolistic position.

"When a flagship title raises its price, it often lifts the entire market," he observed. "We’ve seen indie games move from $20 to $30, and that upward pressure on pricing is partly driven by the premium placed on marquee releases like GTA VI." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase. This growth is attributed to higher player spending, expanded direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and the continued rollout of high‑quality mobile experiences.

The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated approximately $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive demand and anticipation surrounding the game. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant in 2026 without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. Coupled with the upcoming Switch 2 launch, GTA VI is set to drive a notable uplift in console revenue, increase full‑game spending, and influence pricing dynamics across the industry.

While the long‑term effects of GTA Online’s evolution remain uncertain, the immediate impact of the new installment is expected to reverberate throughout the gaming ecosystem, reinforcing the title’s status as a pivotal growth engine for both hardware manufacturers and software publishers alike.