If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console segment would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. He explained his outlook during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the single most powerful catalyst for any growth in the console market this year. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made clear that without the blockbuster crime‑action game, the overall platform would likely see a year‑on‑year decline.
"There are two main drivers shaping the current and future health of console sales: the next‑generation Switch and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier said. "If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, the console market would actually contract compared with last year.
The title is essentially pulling the entire segment into positive territory." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up this sentiment, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry.
Rosier warned that the massive pull of GTA 6 could be "cannibalistic" to other releases, noting that many developers have strategically shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. This scheduling scramble underscores the game’s market‑shaping power and hints at a ripple effect that could temporarily suppress sales of other high‑profile titles.
When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA 6 would be a one‑off spike that might taper off in 2027, Rosier answered that the franchise’s enduring catalogue strength makes such a correction unlikely. "The story doesn’t end in 2026," he explained. "Grand Theft Auto has a long tail, especially with GTA Online continuing to generate revenue long after the initial launch." He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain.
"We don’t have concrete information about how Take‑Two will transition GTA Online to align with the new title," Rosier said. "The company has been tight‑lipped, so we can only infer from past patterns. Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major revenue driver, but we lack specific details beyond historical trends." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for GTA 6 is extremely low because there is only one version of the game at launch.
"When a flagship title like this commands a premium, it tends to lift the overall price floor across the industry," he noted. "We’ve already seen indie titles inching up from $20 to $30, and that trend is likely to continue as consumers accept higher price points for premium experiences." The broader market picture remains dominated by mobile gaming. Newzoo’s report shows mobile platforms accounting for 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
While consoles benefit from the GTA 6 boost, mobile continues to be the engine of overall growth. In addition to the projected revenue lift, Newzoo disclosed that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the intense demand and the game’s role as a revenue catalyst.
This early financial impact further validates Rosier’s claim that without GTA 6, the console ecosystem would likely see flat or declining earnings in 2026. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on two key releases: the next‑generation Nintendo Switch 2 and Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto 6. While the Switch 2 provides a hardware boost, GTA 6 supplies the financial thrust needed to push console revenue above the growth threshold.
Absent the latter, the segment would probably experience a contraction, highlighting how a single blockbuster can shape the fortunes of an entire platform for an entire fiscal year.