If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market‑intelligence director Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that the highly anticipated crime‑action saga is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console segment this year. He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but made clear that without GTA 6 the sector would likely see a year‑on‑year decline. "Two main forces are shaping the current and future health of consoles: the launch of Switch 2 and, most importantly, Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier explained.
"If GTA 6 were not on the 2026 calendar, we would be looking at a contraction across the board. The title is the engine that will push console revenues upward." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up this assessment, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry.
Rosier also warned that the release of GTA 6 will be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. When asked whether the market would experience a sharp "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier argued that the franchise’s enduring catalogue strength means the impact will extend beyond a single year.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. "GTA Online’s future remains uncertain, and Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about transition plans, but the title continues to generate substantial revenue.
Our 2027 outlook already includes the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major driver." Discussing pricing, Rosier noted that the price elasticity for GTA 6 is extremely low because there is only one official version of the game. "When a flagship title raises its price, it often lifts the whole market. Indie games that used to sell for $20 are now $30, and overall price points are creeping upward," he observed.
This price‑push effect, combined with the sheer demand for GTA 6—"everyone's been waiting so long"—creates a scenario where higher price tags do not deter consumers but rather reinforce a premium market perception. While consoles are set to benefit from GTA 6, Newzoo’s report also confirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of total global gaming income in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by stronger player spending and the continued rise of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
In addition to the anticipated revenue boost from GTA 6 sales, Newzoo disclosed that pre‑orders for the title generated $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the massive appetite for the game even before its official launch. This early financial performance further illustrates why Newzoo views GTA 6 as a pivotal factor for console growth. Overall, the data suggest that without Rockstar’s flagship release, the console ecosystem would likely see flat or declining revenues in 2026.
The combination of the Switch 2 launch, the strong pull of GTA 6, and a modest price‑inflation trend across the board are the primary forces expected to drive the modest 5.1% growth forecast. As the industry watches the rollout of GTA 6, analysts will continue to monitor how its success influences not only console sales but also the broader gaming market, including mobile and PC platforms, throughout the remainder of the decade.