If Rockstar Games does not launch Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s latest outlook. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the highly anticipated crime‑action title is the single catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to console platforms this year. Rosier also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor, but he stressed that GTA 6 is the dominant driver.
"There are two main forces shaping the current and future health of the console sector: the launch of the Switch 2 and, of course, Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier said. "If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, we would see the console segment decline year over year.
The game is effectively pulling the whole market upward." Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report backs up this sentiment, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, which Newzoo has identified as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier cautioned that the blockbuster’s release will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that explains why many developers are shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with GTA 6.
When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s longevity as a catalogue title means its impact will extend well beyond the initial release year. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a long‑term brand is enormous," he explained. "The story doesn’t end in 2026. We can’t predict exactly how GTA Online will evolve over the next months, because Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap.
We do know there will be a transition period between the current online ecosystem and the new version that will accompany the PC launch in 2027, and that transition will generate significant revenue as well. Our 2027 forecast already includes the PC release of GTA 6 as a major growth engine, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that when a marquee title like GTA 6 commands a premium price, the entire market tends to follow suit. He described the price elasticity for GTA 6 as "very low" because there is only one such product at any given time, and consumer demand remains inelastic despite higher price points. "Everyone has been waiting for years," he said.
"That doesn’t mean every publisher can simply raise prices, but historically when flagship games increase their price, it lifts the overall market. Indie titles that were $20 are now more often priced at $30, nudging the average spend upward." While consoles are set to benefit from GTA 6, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
In addition to the macro‑level forecasts, Newzoo disclosed that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated approximately $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the title’s immediate financial impact. This early surge, combined with the anticipated full‑game spend uplift, illustrates why Newzoo sees GTA 6 as the linchpin for console growth in 2026.
Overall, the data suggest that without the blockbuster release, the console segment would likely see flat or even declining revenues, while the combined effect of the Switch 2 and GTA 6 is expected to keep the market on an upward trajectory. Industry observers will be watching closely to see whether the projected growth materializes and how the ecosystem adapts once GTA Online transitions to its next iteration in the following year.