In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming open‑world crime saga is the single most significant catalyst for any growth in the console segment for the coming year. He also highlighted that Nintendo’s anticipated Switch 2 console is providing a secondary lift, but it is the GTA VI launch that is expected to tip the balance from a flat or declining trajectory to modest expansion. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier explained.
"If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments with hard numbers. The firm forecasts that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, full‑game spending on consoles is projected to surge 17.5% thanks largely to GTA VI, a growth rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest among all business models in the sector. In other words, the new Grand Theft Auto title is expected to generate more revenue per unit than any other game genre or monetisation strategy this year. Rosier also noted that the arrival of GTA VI will inevitably be "cannibalistic" to some other titles. He suggested that many developers are deliberately shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship launch, a move that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power.
When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might correct itself in 2027, Rosier was quick to point out the enduring strength of the franchise. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he said, implying that the game's influence will continue to ripple through the industry for years to come. The conversation then turned to GTA Online, the persistent multiplayer component that has been a major revenue engine for Take‑Two Interactive.
Rosier admitted that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it's also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that's a big driver obviously.
But we have no information of any kind. We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Pricing was another topic of interest. Rosier observed that when a marquee title like GTA VI commands a premium price, the entire market often feels the lift.
He explained that price elasticity for such a high‑profile release is low because there is only one GTA VI to buy, and consumers are willing to pay a premium after a long wait. "Everyone's been waiting so long," he said. "It doesn't mean that everyone can do that. But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20.
The prices are being lifted a little bit." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed that mobile gaming continues to dominate the global revenue landscape. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of total game revenues in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This underscores the multi‑platform nature of the industry, where growth on one platform can offset stagnation on another. The report also referenced the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI.
In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated $260 million in revenue, a figure that further illustrates the game’s magnetic pull on consumers and its capacity to shape market dynamics. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be flat in 2026 without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a new Switch iteration and the blockbuster launch is expected to push console revenues up modestly, while the broader ecosystem continues to be led by mobile gaming’s massive share. The data suggests that Rockstar’s flagship franchise remains a pivotal driver of industry health, influencing not only direct sales but also pricing trends, release strategies of competing studios, and the overall revenue outlook for the coming years.