If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 figures, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz on the floor of Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most powerful catalyst that will prevent the console segment from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline.
He also highlighted that Nintendo’s anticipated Switch 2 hardware is playing a supportive role in the current performance outlook for consoles. "There are two main forces shaping the console landscape right now: the upcoming Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year, which will lift the entire market," Rosier explained. "If GTA VI were not on the schedule for 2026, we would be looking at a contraction in console revenue compared with the previous year. The game is essentially the engine that will drive positive growth for consoles in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report quantifies this optimism, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026 that would bring the total to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier also warned that the massive pull of GTA VI could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted several developers to shift their launch windows in order to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
When asked whether the 2026 surge in sales might be a one‑off spike that normalizes in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s longevity extends far beyond a single release. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalog title is enormous," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, online modes, and subsequent platform releases." Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about Take‑Two’s roadmap.
"We know a transition will happen at some point, but Take‑Two has not communicated any specifics, so we can’t pinpoint when the current GTA Online ecosystem will give way to the new version," he said. "Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we’re essentially extrapolating from past patterns of previous GTA releases." On pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA VI is extremely low.
"When a single, highly anticipated game commands a premium price, it tends to lift the overall price floor for the industry," he explained. "We’ve seen indie titles move from $20 to $30, and that upward pressure is partly a reflection of what consumers are willing to pay for a premium experience." While consoles are set to enjoy a modest uplift, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is expected to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated approximately $260 million in revenue, underscoring the strong consumer appetite for the franchise.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a new Nintendo Switch 2 console and Rockstar’s flagship release is expected to deliver modest growth for the console segment, while mobile gaming continues to dominate the overall revenue landscape. The broader implications suggest that major, high‑profile releases still have the power to shape industry trends, influencing not only sales figures but also pricing strategies and release schedules across the ecosystem.