According to Newzoo’s latest market analysis, the console segment would have shown virtually no growth in 2026 if not for the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the single most important catalyst for any positive movement in the console market this year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another key contributor, but made clear that without GTA VI the overall platform revenue would have slipped year‑on‑year.
Rosier said, "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up." He added a hypothetical scenario: "If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report, released alongside the interview, forecasts a 5.1 % increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5 %, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry. This surge is not limited to the base game; the analyst predicts that ancillary sales such as downloadable content, season passes, and in‑game microtransactions will also see a noticeable uptick. Rosier warned that the massive pull of GTA VI could be "cannibalistic" to other titles.
He noted that many developers have deliberately shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s release, hoping to preserve their own sales momentum. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that would normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s enduring catalog value makes it unlikely to be a short‑lived phenomenon. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn’t end at the end in 2026," he said.
Uncertainty remains around the future of GTA Online, the persistent multiplayer component that has generated substantial recurring revenue for Take‑Two. Rosier admitted that Take‑Two has been vague about its roadmap, leaving analysts to speculate about when the transition from the current online ecosystem to a new version tied to GTA VI will occur. He emphasized that the 2027 forecast already incorporates the PC launch of GTA VI, which will serve as another major revenue driver, but that no concrete details are available beyond historical patterns observed with previous GTA releases. Pricing dynamics also came under discussion.
Rosier observed that the price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is extremely low because there is only one version of the game at launch. "Everyone’s been waiting so long," he said, noting that while the high price point may be out of reach for some consumers, it tends to lift the overall market. He cited a broader trend where indie titles have seen price increases from $20 to $30, indicating that premium pricing on flagship games can have a halo effect on the entire ecosystem.
While consoles are receiving a boost from GTA VI and the Switch 2, mobile gaming continues to dominate the global revenue landscape. Newzoo’s report confirms that mobile platforms are projected to capture 57 % of worldwide gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 % year‑over‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher player spending, the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and the continued proliferation of high‑quality mobile titles. In addition to the macro‑level forecasts, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the franchise’s unparalleled demand. The strong pre‑order performance, combined with the anticipated post‑launch sales surge, reinforces the analyst’s view that GTA VI is a linchpin for console health in 2026.
Overall, the data paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant, buoyed primarily by two forces: the next‑generation Switch and Rockstar’s blockbuster. Should either of these drivers falter, Newzoo expects the console segment to revert to a flat or declining trajectory, while mobile gaming continues its upward march, solidifying its position as the world’s largest revenue generator in the interactive entertainment industry.