In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially plateau in 2026 if not for the launch of Rockstar Games’ highly anticipated title, Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz that the blockbuster open‑world crime saga is the primary catalyst keeping the console segment on an upward trajectory this year, alongside the anticipated arrival of Nintendo’s next‑generation Switch, commonly referred to as the Switch 2.
"There are two main engines driving current and future console performance: the upcoming Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market higher," Rosier said. "If Grand Theft Auto VI weren’t released in 2026, we would actually see a year‑on‑year decline in platform revenue. GTA is truly the engine of positive growth for consoles in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s remarks, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a growth rate Newzoo describes as the strongest among all business models in the sector.
Rosier also noted that the release of GTA VI is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that has already prompted many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut. When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. "The catalogue value of Grand Theft Auto is immense; the story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch," he said.
He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We don’t have clarity on how GTA Online will evolve over the next months and year. A transition is inevitable, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing, so we can only infer based on how previous GTA titles performed.
Our 2027 outlook already assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will be a major revenue driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the price elasticity for GTA VI is remarkably low because there is only one flagship title in the series at any given time. "When a leading publisher raises its price point, it often lifts the entire market. Indie games that were $20 are now trending toward $30, reflecting a modest overall price increase across the board," he explained.
"Everyone has been waiting for GTA VI for years, and while not every consumer can afford the top‑tier price, the market generally accepts higher price tags for marquee releases." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance, projecting it to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year growth. This expansion is driven by heightened player spending and the continued rise of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the early financial impact of GTA VI pre‑orders, which generated roughly $260 million in the first week after becoming available.
This early surge underscores the franchise’s ability to mobilize a massive audience even before the full product launch. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a clear picture: without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console ecosystem would likely see stagnant or declining revenues in 2026.
The combination of the new Switch 2 and the blockbuster GTA VI release forms a dual‑engine strategy that not only sustains but actively grows the console market. Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues its reign as the largest revenue generator, while price dynamics across the industry shift modestly upward, reflecting consumer willingness to invest more in premium experiences. The upcoming years will be closely watched to see how Take‑Two balances the transition of GTA Online, how the Switch 2 performs against competitors, and whether the momentum generated by GTA VI can be replicated in subsequent titles and platforms.