If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console segment would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that the upcoming crime‑action blockbuster is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console market this year. He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, though its impact is secondary to the GTA VI launch. Rosier explained, "Two main forces are shaping the current and future health of consoles: the arrival of the Switch 2 and, above all, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward." He added a hypothetical scenario: "If Grand Theft Auto VI were not arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline for the platform.
GTA VI is the engine that keeps console growth positive in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report supports this narrative, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, the strongest growth rate of any business model tracked by Newzoo. This surge is expected to ripple through the ecosystem, influencing everything from hardware sales to ancillary services. Rosier also warned that the launch of GTA VI will be "cannibalistic" to certain other titles.
He noted that many developers have deliberately shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might level off in 2027, Rosier responded that the title’s enduring catalog strength means the impact will extend beyond the launch year.
"The story doesn’t end in 2026," he said, referring to the long‑term revenue streams from both the base game and its online component. Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted uncertainty about its future trajectory. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when the handoff between the current GTA ecosystem and the new title will occur. We do know it generates a lot of revenue.
Our 2027 forecast includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." When the conversation turned to pricing, Rosier observed that the price elasticity for GTA VI is remarkably low. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he explained. He added that the long‑awaited release has allowed Rockstar to command a premium price, and that this trend often lifts the broader market. "When top‑tier pricing rises, it tends to lift the market as a whole; indie titles have moved from $20 to $30 in recent years.
Prices are being nudged upward across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is expected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This growth underscores the diversification of the industry, even as flagship console releases like GTA VI remain pivotal.
The report also referenced pre‑order performance for GTA VI, noting that initial orders generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened. This early revenue stream illustrates the strong consumer appetite and provides a glimpse of the financial momentum the title will bring to the console ecosystem. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise plateau or even dip without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI.
The game’s anticipated 17.5% uplift in full‑game spend, combined with the ancillary boost from its online component and the upcoming Switch 2 hardware, forms the backbone of the projected 5.1% revenue increase to $46.9 billion. While uncertainties remain—particularly around the future of GTA Online and the precise timing of the PC launch—industry observers can expect GTA VI to remain a central revenue engine well beyond its initial release window, influencing pricing dynamics, release schedules, and overall market health for years to come.