If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console segment would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s latest market outlook. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, emphasized this point during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, explaining that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console market this year.
Rosier also highlighted the anticipated launch of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary but still important contributor to the sector’s performance. "Two factors are shaping the current and future health of consoles: the arrival of Switch 2 and, most critically, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year," Rosier told the press.
"If GTA VI were to be delayed or cancelled, we would be looking at a year‑on‑year decline for the platform. The game is effectively underwriting positive console growth for 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up these statements with hard numbers. The firm estimates that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. Rosier warned, however, that the blockbuster’s impact will not be uniformly beneficial. He noted that the launch of GTA VI is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted many developers to shift their release windows in order to avoid direct competition with the high‑profile launch.
This strategic reshuffling underscores the game’s market‑moving power and the extent to which publishers are willing to rearrange their calendars to protect sales. When asked whether the 2026 spike in revenue could be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s longevity makes such a scenario unlikely.
"Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a massive, enduring fan base," he explained. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue long after launch through updates, online services, and future platform releases." He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We don’t have concrete information about how GTA Online will evolve over the next months and years," Rosier said.
"Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about its transition plan, so we can only infer from past patterns. Our 2027 forecast already assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will be another significant revenue driver, but beyond that we are largely speculating." The conversation then turned to pricing.
Rosier observed that when a flagship title like GTA VI commands a premium price, the entire market tends to adjust upward. "Price elasticity for GTA VI is very low because there is only one version of the game," he noted. "When a top‑tier game raises its price, it often lifts the perceived value of other titles, nudging indie games from $20 toward $30. This modest inflation benefits overall revenue, even if it doesn’t make every consumer happier." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming continues to dominate the global landscape.
Mobile is expected to capture 57% of total game‑related revenue in 2026, translating to about $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This growth further contextualizes the console segment’s performance, illustrating that while consoles remain a vital pillar, they now operate in a market where mobile commands the lion’s share of consumer dollars.
The report also recalled an earlier Newzoo forecast that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s immediate commercial impact. That early revenue stream, combined with the projected 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending, paints a picture of a title that not only fuels short‑term spikes but also sustains longer‑term financial health for the console ecosystem. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis makes it clear that without the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely see stagnant or declining revenues in 2026.
The game’s anticipated 17.5% boost to full‑game spending, together with the upcoming Switch 2 launch, are the primary engines of the modest 5.1% growth forecast. While the blockbuster may cannibalize some competing releases and cause price adjustments across the board, its overall effect is expected to be a net positive for console manufacturers, publishers, and the broader gaming economy.
The industry will continue to watch how GTA VI’s performance on consoles, and later on PC, shapes revenue trends in the years that follow.