Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transitional period. He explained that the assumptions and playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s rapidly evolving market.
"Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani remarked. "It’s just that the things we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work.
The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that’s the reality." He identified several forces driving this shift.
First, the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region is reshaping the global landscape. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for instance, showcased a string of high‑quality titles from China and South Korea, underscoring how Asian studios are no longer peripheral players but central contributors to the worldwide catalogue. "There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani said.
"That’s been ongoing for the last ten years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, appears to be at a tipping point. While the domestic market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—the overall polish and ambition of Chinese releases have risen dramatically.
Jorjani noted that AI is accelerating this trend, allowing developers to iterate faster and push content to market at unprecedented speeds. "It is definitely picking up for sure," he added.
"I think there’s still a way to go, but there are very different sensibilities to what makes the games tick as well. The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile‑driven. That flavours the sensibilities, but it’s going faster.
I think AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere." Artificial intelligence, according to Jorjani, represents a paradigm shift that dwarfs previous hype cycles such as virtual reality. AI tools are now being woven into every stage of production—from procedural asset generation to narrative design—making it difficult to predict the market’s shape even five years from now, let alone a decade ahead. He also highlighted a cultural divide in AI adoption: Western studios tend to debate ethics, data ownership, and artistic integrity, whereas many Eastern developers appear more pragmatic, focusing on functional outcomes without the same moral hesitation. "In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds.
Whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," Jorjani explained. "When you introduce AI to it, I understand that Western game developers have an existential crisis.
I am an artist, and I’m also connecting with people on an artistic level, but when you make it into software, it’s just functional. The West will be slower on the uptake, but the uptake will still happen." Beyond technology, Jorjani pointed to the sheer length of AAA development cycles as another source of uncertainty. Large‑scale titles often require five to six years of work, coordinated across multiple studios and time zones. This lengthy timeline forces publishers to lean heavily on established IPs to mitigate risk, because brand recognition offers a safety net in an unpredictable marketplace.
"Development cycles are still long. If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works," he said. "The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability.
People know what they’re getting, so you can offset that risk." He illustrated this point with the phenomenon of "analysis paralysis" that afflicts both consumers and investors when faced with an ever‑growing flood of releases. Familiar franchises like Worms provide a clear, low‑risk choice, even if they aren’t groundbreaking. Data from Steam Replay 2025 showed that roughly 44 % of player hours were spent on titles that were between one and seven years old, indicating a preference for known quantities over brand‑new experiences.
"People scream for new games and IPs, but they don’t actually buy them. We tend to buy remakes," Jorjani observed.
"That’s where we were at least very fortunate with Helldivers, in the sense that we were one of the lucky few who were able to get a breakthrough and establish ourselves. And that came through a certain bit of luck and the secret sauce that goes into making the game.
It makes it recognisable, but also its own thing." He contrasted this with the strategy of larger mobile‑first publishers such as Riot Games and Supercell, which often juggle multiple projects simultaneously. In those studios, a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest of the pipeline, allowing the company to allocate resources to the next big venture while the lesser titles fade into obscurity.
For indie developers, however, Jorjani argued, the opposite is true: early validation and rapid community feedback become decisive advantages. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he said.
"The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate. That’s the strength of software development. We see this in indie development because their cycles look very different and they share openly." He cited the indie hit Tiny Glade as an example: the developers posted short GIFs of early gameplay, which went viral week after week, generating buzz long before a formal launch. By contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle that waits until the final product is polished to begin marketing can miss the critical window for organic community building.
Arrowhead is planning to adopt this early‑feedback model for its next project. Jorjani explained that the studio intends to borrow tactics from mobile advertising, where concepts are A/B‑tested with real users to see which resonates most.
The plan involves releasing a prototype to a curated group of about 100 dedicated Helldivers players, then surveying their preferences for specific themes—such as alien invasions or particular gameplay mechanics—to gauge which direction will most likely succeed. "We’ll probably put the game in the hands of 100 Helldivers players, and then we’ll ask them what their favourite IPs or games are. If they’re interested in aliens and they like Helldivers, then we know that they should score the game higher than the control group that all like Helldivers but aliens isn’t their favourite," he explained. "That will allow us to know that we’re able to hit that specific group, and we should do this now, early into development rather than waiting two years after getting broad user tests." Jorjani concluded with a call to abandon outdated development mindsets.
He emphasized that the industry must move away from the secrecy‑driven, long‑lead‑time approach that characterized the previous decade and instead embrace transparency, rapid iteration, and community‑centric design. "But it requires you to let go of that old playbook of playing your cards close to the chest for years, and then dazzle and razzle," he said. "The future belongs to studios that can test, learn, and adapt quickly—whether they’re a small indie team or a large publisher willing to change its ways.
The games industry is still doing well, but only those who understand the new fundamentals will thrive in the years ahead."