If Grand Theft Auto 6 had not been slated for launch in 2026, the console market would have shown virtually no growth compared with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the single most important catalyst keeping the console ecosystem afloat this year. He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but made clear that without GTA 6 the sector would likely have posted a year‑on‑year decline. "There are two main forces shaping the current and future health of consoles: the new Switch 2 hardware and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier explained.
"If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, the platform would be shrinking, not growing. The title is essentially pulling the whole market upward." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026 that would bring total earnings to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by 17.5%, a figure the firm describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry.
This surge is not limited to the initial purchase; Rosier noted that the game’s launch is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles, prompting many developers to shift their own release windows to avoid direct competition with the blockbuster. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that would level off in 2027, Rosier argued that the franchise’s enduring catalogue value means the impact will extend beyond the launch year.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a long‑running series is massive," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate revenue through its online component and subsequent updates." Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete details about the future of GTA Online, noting that Take‑Two Interactive has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap. "We anticipate a transition at some point, but the timing and the exact fit between the existing online service and the new game remain unclear.
Our 2027 forecast does include the PC release of GTA 6, which will be another significant driver, but we’re largely extrapolating from past patterns." The analyst also touched on pricing dynamics, observing that the high price point of GTA 6 reflects a low elasticity of demand. "There’s only one GTA 6, and the fan base has been waiting for years," he said. "When a premium title like this raises its price, it can lift the overall market, even nudging indie game prices upward—from $20 to $30 in many cases." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance.
Mobile is projected to account for 57% of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This underscores the multi‑platform nature of the industry, where console growth, while important, is only one piece of a larger puzzle. The hype surrounding GTA 6 was evident even before its release.
Newzoo previously estimated that pre‑orders for the title generated roughly $260 million in the first week they were available, illustrating the massive appetite among gamers. Such early revenue streams further illustrate why the game is considered a linchpin for console performance in 2026. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would be essentially flat without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto 6. The combination of a new Nintendo Switch 2 and the blockbuster launch is expected to push console earnings up by over five percent, while the game itself is set to boost full‑game spending by nearly a fifth.
Although uncertainties remain—particularly around GTA Online’s future and the exact timing of the PC launch—the consensus among analysts is clear: GTA 6 is the engine driving console growth this year, and its influence will likely ripple through the industry for years to come.