If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s latest analysis. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, emphasized this point during his interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026. He explained that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most significant catalyst that will prevent console revenues from slipping year‑over‑year.
While the much‑anticipated sequel dominates the conversation, Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary driver that is currently bolstering the platform’s performance. "There are two main forces shaping the console landscape right now: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year. Both are set to push the market upward," Rosier told the press. "If GTA VI were delayed or cancelled, we would likely see a contraction in console sales for 2026.
The title is practically guaranteeing positive growth for the sector." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s statements with hard numbers. The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to approximately $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. This surge is not limited to console sales alone; the title’s impact ripples through ancillary services, downloadable content, and the broader ecosystem of Rockstar’s online offerings.
Rosier warned, however, that the massive draw of GTA VI could have a cannibalising effect on other releases. He noted that many developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster, a pattern that mirrors previous generations where flagship titles reshaped release calendars across the industry. "The sheer scale of GTA VI means that other games may see reduced visibility during its launch window," he said. "Studios are deliberately spacing out their releases to preserve sales momentum." When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might level off in 2027, Rosier argued that the franchise’s longevity makes such a correction unlikely.
"Grand Theft Auto is more than a single-year event; it’s a catalogue title with a lasting presence," he explained. "The narrative doesn’t stop at the launch. Ongoing updates, online modes, and community engagement keep revenue flowing long after the initial sales surge." Regarding GTA Online, Rosian admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete insight into Rockstar’s roadmap. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing and specifics," he said.
"Our 2027 forecast assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will be a major revenue driver, but we can’t speak to the exact mechanics of how the online component will evolve." Pricing dynamics also entered the discussion. Rosier observed that the high price point of GTA VI reflects a broader market trend where premium titles set new price floors, influencing the entire industry.
"When a flagship game commands a premium price, it tends to lift the average price of other releases, even indie titles," he noted. "The price elasticity for a game like GTA VI is very low—there’s only one version, and demand is inelastic." He added that the anticipation surrounding GTA VI has been building for years, creating a unique environment where consumers are willing to pay more for the experience. "Everyone’s been waiting a long time for this sequel," Rosier said.
"While not every developer can charge a similar premium, the overall market benefits from the upward pressure on pricing." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
This underscores the multi‑platform nature of the industry, where console growth, while significant, operates alongside a massive mobile ecosystem. In a related data point, Newzoo previously disclosed that pre‑orders for GTA VI generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened, illustrating the immediate financial impact of the title’s launch hype.
This early revenue stream further validates the firm’s projection that GTA VI will be a pivotal factor in the console market’s performance throughout 2026 and beyond. In summary, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console sector that would otherwise be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a high‑profile release, supportive hardware like the Switch 2, and the broader market dynamics of pricing and release timing all converge to create a modest but meaningful growth trajectory for consoles in 2026. Meanwhile, mobile continues to dominate overall revenue, highlighting the diversified nature of the global gaming landscape.