According to Newzoo’s latest market intelligence, the console segment would have essentially flat‑lined in 2026 if not for the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console ecosystem this year. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made clear that the impact of GTA VI dwarfs all other factors. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier said.
He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the point: "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments.
The report forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI alone is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry. The analyst also warned that the launch of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that many developers are strategically shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
This crowd‑shifting behavior underscores how dominant the GTA franchise has become; its release can reshape an entire year’s publishing calendar. When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the longevity of the brand. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn’t end at the end in 2026," he noted. He also pointed out the uncertainty surrounding GTA Online’s future, acknowledging that Take‑Two has not disclosed a clear roadmap for the transition between the existing online component and the new iteration.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will happen," Rosier said. "Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on PC, which will be another major driver, but we have no concrete information beyond what we can infer from past launches." Rosier also touched on pricing dynamics, observing that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is unusually low.
Because there is only one official version of the game, consumers are less sensitive to price changes. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he explained.
He added that the high anticipation—"Everyone’s been waiting so long"—allows Rockstar to command a premium price without significantly dampening demand. This premium pricing can have a ripple effect across the industry, nudging indie developers to raise their own price points from $20 to $30, thereby lifting overall market revenue. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant platform globally, expected to generate 57% of total game revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher player spending and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, which give developers more control over pricing and distribution. The report also highlighted the early financial impact of GTA VI pre‑orders. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull even before the full game is released. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant in 2026, buoyed primarily by two forces: the imminent Nintendo Switch 2 and the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
While the Switch 2 contributes incremental growth, GTA VI acts as a powerhouse, delivering a 17.5% boost to full‑game spending and preventing a year‑over‑year decline. The franchise’s influence extends beyond immediate sales, shaping release strategies across the industry and even affecting pricing trends for smaller titles.
Looking ahead, the continued performance of GTA VI on consoles, its eventual PC launch, and the uncertain future of GTA Online will remain key variables in forecasting the health of the broader gaming market.