Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the studio behind Helldivers 2 – told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is currently undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance, and that the assumptions underpinning business cases from that era are no longer valid. "Sometimes you hear doom‑and‑gloom narratives, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani said.
"What has changed is that the fundamentals we built our forecasts on have been upended. The formulas that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply today. The bottom line has been ripped out of every old business model.
No one ever really knew how many copies a title would sell, but they at least assumed a baseline. Take that baseline away – that’s the new reality." He identified three major forces reshaping the market.
First, the continued ascent of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the growing technical and artistic capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a decade‑long trend of Asian games moving into Western consciousness. "For ten years we’ve seen Asian companies make incremental inroads, but now it’s a steady stream of titles that can compete on a global stage," Jorjani observed.
China, in particular, appears to be reaching a tipping point in terms of production quality. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that influences design sensibilities – the speed at which games are being created is accelerating, a phenomenon Jorjani attributes in part to artificial intelligence. "AI is pushing the pace of development everywhere," he explained, noting that faster iteration cycles are allowing Chinese studios to close the gap with traditional AAA houses. The second catalyst is AI itself.
Jorjani warned that the technology introduces a level of market volatility that makes medium‑term forecasting extremely difficult. He contrasted the ethical debates dominating the West with the pragmatic, almost indifferent adoption seen in the East. In Europe and North America, developers grapple with questions about data ownership, moral implications, and artistic integrity. In contrast, many Asian studios treat AI as a straightforward productivity tool, focusing on functional code rather than philosophical concerns.
"Western developers are experiencing an existential crisis because they see games as art as well as software. In the East, the conversation is more about efficiency and output," he said.
Even with these cultural differences, Jorjani expects the West to eventually catch up, albeit at a slower pace. He predicts that once the ethical debates settle into regulatory frameworks, AI‑driven pipelines will become the norm across all regions. The third challenge is the length of AAA development cycles.
Large‑scale projects often require five to six years of coordinated effort across multiple studios and time zones. This prolonged timeline amplifies risk, especially in a market where consumer tastes shift rapidly. Consequently, publishers have leaned heavily on established franchises and recognizable IPs to hedge against uncertainty.
"When you have a brand like Worms, players know what they’re buying. That brand recognition mitigates risk," Jorjani explained. He cited Steam data indicating that roughly half of all playtime on the platform is spent on games older than eighteen months, reinforcing the notion that gamers gravitate toward familiar titles rather than untested new IPs. Nevertheless, Jorjani highlighted a paradox: while players vocalize a desire for fresh experiences, their purchasing behavior often favors remakes and sequels.
Arrowhead’s own success with Helldivers was, he admitted, partly a matter of luck and a unique "secret sauce" that made the game stand out. In this environment, indie developers possess a distinct strategic advantage.
Jorjani pointed to companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which maintain multiple projects simultaneously; a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest, allowing the studio to survive even if other titles falter. Indie studios, with their shorter development loops and willingness to share early builds publicly, can validate concepts quickly. "Early validation is the key to success," he said.
"If you can put a prototype in front of players and get positive feedback, you know you’re on the right track and can iterate fast." He gave the example of Tiny Glade, an indie title that generated buzz after the developers released a handful of GIFs that went viral week after week. By contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle forces teams to wait until the product is complete before launching a massive marketing push, increasing the risk of missing market windows. Arrowhead plans to incorporate this indie‑style validation into its next project. The studio is borrowing a tactic long used by mobile developers: testing concepts through ad creatives and measuring which resonate most with audiences.
Jorjani described a concrete plan: the team will hand a prototype to a curated group of about one hundred Helldivers veterans, ask them about their favorite franchises, and gauge their reactions to alien‑themed content. By comparing responses from players who love both Helldivers and alien settings against a control group that simply enjoys Helldivers, the studio hopes to fine‑tune its target demographic early in development. "We want to reach a very specific kind of connoisseur, not just any action‑game fan," he said.
"Early feedback lets us adjust before we’ve sunk years of resources into a direction that might miss the mark." Jorjani concluded by urging the industry to abandon the old habit of keeping projects under wraps for years before a grand reveal. "The old playbook of hiding your cards until the final act is obsolete. If you want to thrive in this new landscape, you need to get your game into players’ hands as soon as possible, listen, iterate, and then amplify." In summary, the Arrowhead CEO believes that the convergence of longer development timelines, the surge of Asian talent, and the disruptive potential of AI has rewritten the rules of the game.
While large studios cling to brand power to reduce risk, independent developers who can validate ideas quickly and adapt on the fly are poised to capture the opportunities of this rapidly evolving industry.