Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the team behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argues that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani observes. "It’s just that the things we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally.
The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had.
No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away.
And that’s the reality." Several forces are driving this shift. One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region.
This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the growing capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a trend Jorjani says has been building for a decade but has now reached a tipping point. "There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," he notes. "That’s been ongoing for the last 10 years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, is producing higher‑quality titles at an accelerating pace. Jorjani points out that while the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—shaping developers’ design sensibilities—the overall quality of console and PC games from the region is improving rapidly.
He adds that artificial intelligence is amplifying this momentum, allowing studios to iterate faster and bring more products to market. AI, according to Jorjani, is the most disruptive technology the industry has seen in recent memory. Unlike earlier hype cycles such as virtual reality, which ultimately settled into a niche, AI is reshaping development pipelines, content creation, and even business models.
He highlights a stark cultural divide in how the technology is embraced: "In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical, whether companies should be allowed to train on certain data, and if we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds. In the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever.
Everyone has shifted over to using AI completely and without any major moral qualms." This divergence creates an existential dilemma for Western developers. Jorjani, himself an artist, explains that while AI can automate functional code, it also threatens the artistic connection that many creators cherish. "When you introduce AI to it, I understand that Western game developers have an existential crisis.
I am an artist, and I’m also connecting with people on an artistic level, but when you make it into software, it’s just functional. The West will be slower on the uptake, but the uptake will still happen," he says. Beyond technology, the sheer length of AAA development cycles adds another layer of uncertainty. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years and involve multiple teams spread across time zones.
This long horizon makes publishers hesitant to fund brand‑new intellectual property, prompting a focus on established franchises that carry built‑in audience recognition. Jorjani explains, "If you know that development cycles are still long and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works. The only thing that really mitigates risk at that level is brand and recognisability.
People know what they’re getting, so you can offset that risk." He observes that the modern market is saturated with releases, leading to what he calls "analysis paralysis" for consumers. Familiar titles like Worms provide a safety net because players already understand the experience, even if the game isn’t groundbreaking. Data from Steam Replay 2025 shows that roughly 44 % of playtime comes from titles between one and seven years old, indicating that gamers often gravitate toward known quantities rather than untested new IPs.
This reality benefits studios that have already secured a foothold, such as Arrowhead with Helldivers, which achieved success through a combination of luck and a distinctive design "secret sauce." Jorjani points to companies like Riot Games and Supercell as examples of how a portfolio approach can reduce risk: they juggle multiple projects, and the success of one hit can subsidize the others. However, he believes indie developers possess a strategic edge because of their ability to validate concepts early. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he says.
"The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate." Indie studios typically operate with shorter cycles and a culture of openness. They might share a quick GIF of gameplay, gauge community reaction, and pivot quickly based on that feedback. Jorjani cites the indie title Tiny Glade, which gained momentum after early visual teasers went viral week over week. In contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle forces developers to wait until the product is finished before launching a massive marketing push, which can be risky in a volatile market.
Arrowhead intends to adopt this early‑validation mindset for its next project. The studio is inspired by mobile‑gaming practices that test concepts through ad campaigns and analytics before committing to full production. Jorjani explains, "We’re going to be putting it in the hands of players right away as soon as possible. Our philosophy has always been that we want to make games for a certain type of connoisseur.
We don’t want just any action player fan. We want a specific one. So we’ll probably put the game in the hands of 100 Helldivers players, and then we’ll ask them what their favourite IPs or games are.
If they’re interested in aliens and they like Helldivers, we know that segment should score the game higher than a control group that all like Helldivers but don’t love aliens. That will allow us to know that we’re able to hit that specific group, and we should do this now, early into development rather than waiting two years after getting broad user tests." In summary, Jorjani paints a picture of an industry where long‑standing assumptions have been upended by rapid technological advancement, shifting geographic power balances, and evolving consumer behavior. While the future remains uncertain—especially with AI’s unpredictable trajectory—independent developers who can iterate quickly, validate early, and target niche audiences appear well‑positioned to thrive amid the upheaval.
Arrowhead’s own strategy reflects this new reality, emphasizing rapid prototyping, community feedback, and a willingness to abandon the old playbook of guarded, years‑long development cycles in favor of a more agile, data‑driven approach.