According to Newzoo’s latest market analysis, the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if it weren’t for the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the single most significant catalyst that will keep the console market from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made it clear that GTA VI is the primary engine driving the projected uplift.
"There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier said. He added that without the GTA VI launch, the console ecosystem would likely contract, stating, "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year.
GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report quantifies this impact. The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a growth rate Newzoo describes as the strongest among all business models in the sector. Rosier warned that the blockbuster’s release will be "cannibalistic to some other games," a reality that has already prompted several developers to shift their launch windows in order to avoid direct competition with GTA VI.
When asked whether the market would experience a massive GTA‑driven spike in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he noted.
He also addressed the uncertain future of GTA Online, acknowledging that Take‑Two has not disclosed its roadmap. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier said.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it's also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that's a big driver obviously. But we have no information of any kind.
We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA VI, Rosier observed that the title’s price elasticity is unusually low because there is only one version of the game at launch. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he explained. He added that the long‑awaited release has allowed Rockstar to command a premium price, and that this trend often lifts the overall market. "When the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20.
The prices are being lifted a little bit," he said. While consoles are set to benefit from GTA VI, Newzoo’s broader report confirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the massive demand for the title.
This early revenue stream, combined with the expected post‑launch sales surge, forms a critical component of Newzoo’s optimistic outlook for the console market. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console landscape that would otherwise be stagnant in 2026, but is buoyed by two key forces: the imminent arrival of Nintendo’s Switch 2 and the blockbuster launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.
The latter not only promises a substantial uplift in full‑game spending but also sets a pricing precedent that could ripple through the broader industry, potentially raising price points for both AAA and indie titles alike. As the year unfolds, the actual performance of GTA VI—both on consoles and later on PC—will be a crucial barometer for the health of the console market and for Take‑Two’s revenue trajectory moving into 2027.