Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the tactics and assumptions that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market. "There have been moments of doom‑and‑gloom, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani said. "What’s changed is that the foundations of our old playbooks have been upended.
The formulas that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line of every business case has vanished. No one can reliably predict a title’s sales any more—if you once assumed a game would sell a certain number of copies, you now have to subtract that figure to zero. That’s the reality we’re facing." He identified several forces driving this upheaval.
One of the most visible is the continued ascent of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for instance, highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a trend that has been building for a decade but now appears in a steady stream of high‑quality releases. "Asian games and companies have been gradually moving into Western markets for ten years," Jorjani explained. "Now it’s a constant flow—game after game—showing that they can compete at the highest level." China, in particular, seems to have reached a tipping point in terms of production values and creative ambition.
While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric, that focus has accelerated development cycles and, according to Jorjani, is being amplified by artificial intelligence. "The quality of Chinese titles is definitely rising," he noted.
"There’s still a way to go, but the sensibilities are evolving. Mobile dominance shapes those sensibilities, and AI is speeding everything up. More games are being released faster than ever before, everywhere." AI, Jorjani argued, is the most disruptive technology the industry has seen in recent memory. Unlike previous hype‑driven trends such as virtual reality, AI is already reshaping production pipelines, content generation, and even business models.
Yet its adoption varies dramatically between East and West. "In the West, we’re debating ethics, data ownership, and artistic integrity," he said. "In the East, there’s far less hesitation—companies adopt AI wholesale because it simply works. It’s a functional tool, not a creative medium, so the moral debate is muted." He acknowledged that Western developers are experiencing an "existential crisis" as they grapple with the tension between artistry and automation.
While artists may fear that AI reduces games to mere software, Jorjani believes the West will eventually catch up, albeit at a slower pace. Beyond technology, Jorjani highlighted the sheer length of AAA development cycles as a second major obstacle to forecasting. Large‑scale projects often require five or six years and coordination across multiple studios and time zones.
This long‑term commitment pushes publishers toward established franchises and away from risky new intellectual property, especially in Western markets. "Multiple forces are converging," he said. "Development timelines remain long, and if the market is shifting, you need a rock‑solid bet.
Brand recognition is the only real risk mitigator. When you launch a known name—say, Worms—you know what players expect, even if you can’t guarantee innovation.
Data shows that roughly half of Steam’s playtime is spent on games older than 18 months, and a large share of that is on titles that have been around for years. People claim they want fresh IPs, but they often buy remakes or sequels instead." Jorjani pointed to companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which maintain portfolios of several projects simultaneously.
When one title becomes a breakout hit, the others fade into obscurity, creating a space where indie developers can thrive. "The secret sauce for any successful game is early validation," he asserted. "The sooner you can show something to a real player and receive positive feedback, the better you can iterate.
Indie teams excel at this because their cycles are short and they share progress openly—sometimes just a GIF. If the community reacts positively, you know you’re on the right track. Contrast that with a four‑year development cycle where you wait until the game is finished before you market it heavily." Arrowhead is applying this philosophy to its upcoming project. The studio plans to borrow tactics from mobile developers, who routinely test concepts via ads and analytics before committing to full production.
Jorjani described a concrete plan: release a prototype to a curated group of about one hundred Helldivers enthusiasts, gather data on their preferences—such as whether they favor alien themes—and compare responses against a control group. "If those players love the alien angle and enjoy Helldivers, we’ll prioritize that direction," he explained. "If the control group likes Helldivers but not the alien focus, we’ll adjust accordingly. This early, data‑driven approach lets us hit a specific niche rather than waiting two years for broad user testing." He concluded by emphasizing the need to abandon the old, secretive playbook of developing in isolation for years and then unveiling a polished product.
"We have to let go of the notion of keeping cards close to the chest for years and then dazzling the market with a big reveal," Jorjani said. "Instead, we should involve players early, iterate quickly, and let the community shape the final experience.
That’s where the future of game development lies, especially for indie studios that can move nimbly while larger publishers wrestle with longer cycles and shifting market dynamics.