Newzoo Predicts Console Earnings Would Stagnate in 2026 Without GTA 6 Launch

In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming blockbuster is the single most important catalyst keeping the console ecosystem from slipping into a year‑on‑year decline. While the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 also contributes positively, Rosier emphasized that GTA VI is the dominant growth engine for the sector.

"There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier explained. He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the point: "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s statements with hard numbers.

The report forecasts console revenue to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a rate Newzoo labels as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. The impact of GTA VI, however, is not limited to pure revenue uplift.

Rosier noted that the game’s release will be "cannibalistic to some other games," meaning that developers and publishers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship title. This ripple effect underscores the sheer market‑shaping power of the Grand Theft Auto brand. When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier pointed to the franchise’s enduring appeal.

"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn't end at the end in 2026," he said. He highlighted the uncertainty surrounding GTA Online’s future, noting that Take‑Two Interactive has been tight‑lipped about transition plans between the existing online component and the new iteration. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA," Rosier remarked. Looking ahead, Newzoo’s forecast for 2027 includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which is expected to be another substantial revenue driver.

Yet Rosier cautioned that the firm lacks concrete information about the timing or scale of that release, relying instead on historical patterns observed with previous Grand Theft Auto launches. Pricing dynamics also feature prominently in Rosier’s analysis. He observed that the price elasticity for GTA VI is exceptionally low because there is only one flagship title on the market at any given time. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he explained.

Rosier suggested that the high price point of GTA VI could have a halo effect, nudging up average prices across the broader console market, including indie titles that may see price hikes from $20 to $30. Beyond consoles, Newzoo reaffirmed that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide.

The Global Games Market Report projects mobile platforms to account for 57% of total global game revenue in 2026, translating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is attributed to higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also revisited pre‑order performance for GTA VI, noting that the title generated $260 million in revenue during its first week of availability. This early financial success further illustrates the franchise’s ability to drive significant consumer spending right out of the gate.

In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a strong new console offering from Nintendo and the unparalleled draw of Rockstar’s latest installment appears to be the twin engine propelling console revenues upward in 2026. While the long‑term implications for the broader gaming ecosystem remain to be seen, the data suggests that GTA VI will not only boost immediate sales but also influence pricing strategies and release schedules across the industry for years to come.