According to Newzoo’s latest market intelligence, the console segment would have shown virtually no growth in 2026 if not for the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the single catalyst that keeps the console market from slipping into negative territory this year. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, though secondary, engine of momentum for hardware sales and software spend. Rosier put it plainly: “There are two forces shaping the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward.” He went on to illustrate the counterfactual scenario, stating, “If Grand Theft Auto VI were not released in 2026, the console platform would actually contract year‑over‑year.
GTA is the main reason consoles will record positive growth in 2026.” Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up those statements with hard numbers. The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that uplift, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. Rosier also warned that the blockbuster’s launch will be "cannibalistic" to other titles. He noted that many developers have deliberately shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with GTA VI, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑dominant pull. When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that normalises in 2027, Rosier replied that the durability of the Grand Theft Auto brand makes such a correction unlikely.
“The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge; the story doesn’t end in 2026,” he said. The future of GTA Online remains uncertain, Rosier admitted. “We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when the hand‑off between the current GTA ecosystem and the new title will happen.
We do know it is generating a lot of revenue.” He added that Newzoo’s 2027 outlook already incorporates the anticipated PC launch of GTA VI, which will act as another significant revenue driver, but the firm lacks concrete details beyond historical patterns from previous GTA releases. On pricing, Rosier observed that Grand Theft Auto VI’s cost is less elastic than most games because there is only one headline title to buy.
"Sometimes one publisher leads the way and others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he explained. He further noted that when premium‑priced titles increase, the overall market often follows suit, citing a recent trend where indie games have nudged up from $20 to $30, lifting average spend per user. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
This growth continues to outpace all other platforms, underscoring the importance of cross‑platform strategies for publishers. The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened, highlighting the title’s immediate commercial impact even before launch. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture in which the console market’s modest revival in 2026 hinges almost entirely on the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, complemented by the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2, while mobile gaming remains the sector’s revenue powerhouse.