Newzoo Predicts Console Earnings Would Stagnate in 2026 Without GTA 6 Launch

According to Newzoo’s latest market outlook, the console segment would have essentially flatlined in 2026 if not for the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth to the console ecosystem this year.

Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he stressed that the magnitude of GTA VI’s impact dwarfs any other factor. "Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the next‑generation Switch and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier said.

"If GTA VI were delayed or cancelled, we would be looking at a year‑over‑year decline for consoles. The game is literally pulling the whole market upward in 2026." Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report quantifies this effect. The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion.

Within that figure, GTA VI alone is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. This surge is not limited to the base game; the title’s extensive online component is also expected to generate substantial ancillary revenue. Rosier warned that the blockbuster’s launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other releases, a phenomenon already prompting many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with GTA VI. This strategic reshuffling underscores the game’s market‑dominant position and the ripple effect a single high‑profile title can have across the entire industry.

When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off bump that normalises in 2027, Rosier argued that GTA’s longevity as a catalogue property ensures continued relevance. "The story doesn’t end in 2026," he noted.

"GTA VI will keep feeding the ecosystem for years, especially through its online mode, which remains a major revenue source for Take‑Two." However, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete details about the future of GTA Online. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing and how the new and old online experiences will coexist," he said. "Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another significant driver, but we’re largely extrapolating from past patterns rather than insider information." Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA VI, Rosier observed that the title’s price elasticity is unusually low.

"There’s only one GTA VI, so consumers are willing to pay a premium," he explained. "When a flagship game commands a higher price, it often lifts the overall market price floor. Indie titles that used to sell for $20 are now seeing $30 price points, nudging the average spend upward across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is expected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.

This growth contrasts with the console sector’s modest rise and highlights the divergent trajectories within the broader gaming landscape. The report also referenced early pre‑order performance for GTA VI.

In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the game generated approximately $260 million in revenue, signalling strong consumer appetite even before the official launch. This early influx contributes to the overall positive outlook for console revenues, reinforcing Rosier’s assertion that GTA VI is a pivotal growth engine.

In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market heavily reliant on a single, high‑profile release to achieve any positive momentum in 2026. While the Nintendo Switch 2 adds a layer of optimism, it is GTA VI’s anticipated sales and ongoing online monetisation that are expected to push console earnings up by over five percent.

The broader industry will continue to watch how Take‑Two manages the transition of GTA’s online services and whether the price premium set by GTA VI will ripple through other segments, potentially reshaping pricing norms across both console and indie titles.