Newzoo Predicts Console Earnings Would Stagnate in 2026 Without GTA 6 Launch

If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year, the console market would essentially break even with 2025, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the singular catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth for consoles in 2026. He also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, though secondary, contributor to the sector’s performance. "Two main forces are shaping the current and future health of the console ecosystem: the arrival of Switch 2 and, most importantly, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier explained.

"If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑on‑year decline for the platform. The game is fundamentally supporting positive growth for consoles in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report projects that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion.

Within that figure, GTA VI is forecast to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a boost Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models tracked. This surge is expected to offset the otherwise flat trajectory of the console segment.

Rosier also warned that the launch of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that explains why many developers are shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier noted that the franchise’s longevity as a catalogue property means its impact will extend beyond the initial launch year. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said.

He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when the hand‑off between the current GTA ecosystem and the new title will occur. We do know it’s generating a lot of revenue.

Our 2027 forecast includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be a major driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns from previous GTA releases." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the market often follows the lead of a dominant publisher. "The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he said.

"Everyone’s been waiting so long. That doesn’t mean everyone can afford it, but when a flagship title’s price rises, it tends to lift the entire market.

Indie games, for example, have moved from $20 to around $30, nudging overall price points upward." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator, accounting for 57% of global gaming income in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.

Earlier data from Newzoo indicated that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s massive pull. While the exact magnitude of the post‑launch revenue spike remains to be seen, industry analysts agree that GTA VI will be a pivotal event for the console market, potentially reshaping spending patterns, influencing release strategies of other studios, and even affecting pricing norms across the broader gaming ecosystem.

In summary, without the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console sector would likely see stagnant or declining revenues in 2026. The combination of GTA VI’s anticipated 17.5% uplift in full‑game spend and the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 provides the only realistic path to the projected 5.1% growth to $46.9 billion. As the year unfolds, observers will be watching closely to see how these two drivers interact and whether the market can sustain the momentum beyond the initial hype surrounding Rockstar’s flagship title.