According to Newzoo’s latest market outlook, the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if it weren’t for the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship title is the single catalyst that will keep the console market moving upward this year.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as an additional, albeit secondary, driver of the platform’s performance. Rosier summed up the situation succinctly: “There are two forces shaping the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market higher.” He went on to stress the magnitude of GTA VI’s impact, noting that without the game the console ecosystem would actually contract year‑over‑year. “If GTA VI weren’t launching in 2026, the platform would be declining. GTA is truly the engine that will deliver positive growth for consoles in 2026,” he said.
Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report quantifies that optimism. The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by Newzoo. Rosier also warned that the launch of GTA VI will likely be cannibalistic to other titles.
He suggested that many developers are deliberately shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster, a strategy that could reshape the release calendar across the industry. When asked whether the 2026 spike in sales might be a one‑off “GTA bump” that would level off in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring power of the franchise. “The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is massive; the story doesn’t end in 2026,” he explained. He admitted that Newzoo has limited insight into the future of GTA Online, saying, “We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year.
We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has not communicated details, so we can’t pinpoint when the hand‑off between the current GTA ecosystem and the new title will occur. Nevertheless, it continues to generate substantial revenue.” Rosier added that the firm’s 2027 outlook already assumes a PC launch of GTA VI, which will serve as another significant revenue catalyst, although concrete data on that rollout remains unavailable. Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA VI, Rosier observed that when a marquee publisher raises its price point, the broader market often follows suit. He noted that price elasticity for the game is low because there is only one GTA VI on the market, creating a unique demand curve.
“Everyone’s been waiting so long,” he said. “That doesn’t mean everyone can afford it, but historically when top‑tier pricing moves upward, it lifts the entire market. Indie titles that were $20 are now closer to $30, and overall price levels are nudging higher.” While consoles are receiving a boost from GTA VI and the Switch 2, Newzoo’s report reiterates that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games industry.
Mobile is forecast to capture 57% of total gaming revenue in 2026, equating to about $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also recalled an earlier Newzoo estimate that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the immediate financial impact of the franchise’s launch window. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant or even shrinking without the dual thrust of the Switch 2 and the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI. The game’s ability to lift full‑game spending by nearly one‑fifth, its anticipated cannibalisation of competing titles, and its low price elasticity all point to a pivotal role in shaping 2026’s console revenue landscape.
At the same time, the broader industry continues to be led by mobile, which still commands the lion’s share of global gaming income. The interplay between these forces will define the growth trajectory of the sector in the coming years.