In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) this year. According to Rosier, the upcoming blockbuster is the single most important catalyst that will prevent the console segment from slipping into negative growth when compared with 2025 figures. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s forthcoming Switch 2 console as an additional, though secondary, driver of the sector’s performance.
“There are two forces shaping the current and future health of consoles: the launch of the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is set to push the market upward,” he explained. He added that without the GTA VI launch, the console platform would likely experience a year‑on‑year decline, underscoring how pivotal the title is for the entire ecosystem. Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking total earnings to $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by the firm.
This surge is expected to outweigh any potential cannibalisation of other titles, a point Rosier emphasized when he noted that many developers are deliberately shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with the GTA VI launch. When asked whether the market would see a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 that would taper off in 2027, Rosier cautioned that the franchise’s influence extends far beyond a single year.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is enormous; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. He also admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete details about the future of GTA Online, acknowledging that Take‑Two Interactive has been tight‑lipped about its transition plans.
"We know there will be a shift at some point, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we can only infer based on past patterns," Rosier remarked. Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecast incorporates the anticipated PC release of GTA VI, which is expected to act as another significant revenue engine. However, the firm does not possess any insider information about the exact timing or scale of that launch, relying instead on historical data from previous GTA cycles to shape its projections.
Rosier also touched on the pricing dynamics surrounding GTA VI. He observed that when a flagship title commands a premium price, it often sets a new benchmark for the broader market.
"The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he explained. "Everyone’s been waiting so long, and while not every publisher can command that price, the top‑end pricing tends to lift the overall market.
Indie games, for example, have seen their average price creep from $20 to $30 as the premium tier rises." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This growth underscores the diversification of the gaming landscape, where mobile remains the primary engine of revenue while consoles rely heavily on marquee releases like GTA VI to sustain momentum.
In a related data point, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, illustrating the immediate financial impact of the title’s launch hype. This early revenue burst further validates Rosier’s assertion that GTA VI will be a linchpin for console earnings throughout 2026 and beyond.
Overall, the consensus among analysts at Gamescom suggests that without the gravitational pull of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely have faced a flat or even declining trajectory in 2026. The combination of a new Nintendo hardware offering and the unparalleled draw of Rockstar’s flagship franchise appears to be the only plausible path to the modest growth forecasted by Newzoo.
As the industry watches the rollout of GTA VI and the upcoming Switch 2, stakeholders will be keen to see whether these catalysts can indeed offset broader market headwinds and deliver the projected $46.9 billion in console revenue for the year.