In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) this year. According to Rosier, the upcoming blockbuster is the primary catalyst that will keep console revenues moving upward, alongside the anticipated launch of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2.
Rosier explained that two main forces are shaping the console landscape for the coming year. The first is the Switch 2, which continues to attract a broad audience with its hybrid design and strong first‑party lineup. The second, and arguably more powerful, is GTA 6, a title that historically has generated massive spikes in hardware sales, software purchases, and ongoing digital revenue.
"If GTA 6 were not arriving in 2026, we would see a year‑over‑year decline in console revenue," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz. "GTA’s brand power is what is turning a potentially stagnant market into one that actually grows." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report quantifies this effect.
The firm projects that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, full‑game spending on consoles is expected to rise by 17.5% thanks to GTA 6, marking the strongest expansion among all business models tracked by Newzoo. This surge is not limited to the initial purchase; the title’s extensive online component, GTA Online, is also anticipated to generate substantial ongoing income, though the exact magnitude remains uncertain. Rosier also noted that the release of GTA 6 is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles releasing around the same window.
Many developers have already shifted their launch dates to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping influence. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off bump that normalizes in 2027, Rosier argued that the franchise’s longevity suggests otherwise. "Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with enduring appeal," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the ecosystem around it—DLCs, online updates, and future platform releases—will continue to drive revenue for years to come." Looking ahead, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the future of GTA Online and the timing of any transition to a new online framework that will accompany GTA VI on PC in 2027.
"Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap," he remarked. "We can only infer from past patterns that a new online service will eventually replace the current one, but the exact timeline is unknown." Pricing dynamics also play a role in the market outlook. Rosier observed that the price elasticity for a title like GTA 6 is extremely low—there is essentially only one version of the game, and fans are willing to pay a premium. He pointed out that when flagship titles increase their price points, it often lifts the overall market, including indie titles that may see their average price rise from $20 to $30.
This ripple effect can contribute to higher average revenue per user across the console ecosystem. While consoles are set to benefit from these forces, Newzoo’s broader market analysis reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide.
Mobile is forecast to capture 57% of total global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA 6. In its first week of availability, pre‑orders generated an estimated $260 million, signaling strong consumer demand even before the game’s official launch. This early revenue stream further bolsters the case that GTA 6 will be a pivotal growth engine for the console sector.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant in 2026, but is buoyed by two key drivers: the upcoming Switch 2 and the release of Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto VI. The latter’s anticipated 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending, combined with its low price elasticity and the ancillary revenue from GTA Online, positions it as the cornerstone of console growth for the year.
Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues its reign as the largest revenue source, underscoring the diversified nature of the global games industry.